:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2004 Feb 24 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 February 2004

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels. Activity was low
on 16 February due to a single C-class flare.  Activity then dropped
to very low levels from 17 – 21 February.  Low level activity
returned on 22 February as Region 564 (N13, L=160, class/area
Eai/180 on 22 February) developed on the disk, exhibiting rapid
growth and a few C-class flares.  Magnetic complexity in Region 564
increased on 22 February with a weak delta configuration forming in
the intermediate spots.   Activity from this region consisted of
B-class to low level C-class flares; including the largest flare of
the period, a C1.9 at 2000 UTC on 22 February.  At the time of this
report Region 564 continues to grow and has reached an area of 300
millionths.  The magnetic complexity appears to be declining.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft during most of the summary period. The
period began with solar wind speed elevated between 500 – 600 km/s
and declining.  The decreasing wind speed was due to a coronal hole
rotating beyond a geoeffective position.  By 17 February, the wind
speed dropped below 500 km/s and by 20 February the wind speed was
steady near 400 km/s.   The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not vary beyond +/- 7 nT through out the period.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geosynchronous
orbit during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels every day during the period, 16 – 22 February.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled during the
period.  Quiet levels were observed on 17 and 20 February.  Isolated
minor storm levels occurred at high latitudes on 21 February, and
isolated major storm levels were observed at high latitudes on 22
February.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 February - 22 March 2004

Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low levels.
Predominantly very low to low activity levels are expected from late
February through early March.  Mostly low level activity may return
by mid March due to the return Region 564.

No greater than 10 MeV proton events are expected during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 02 – 05 March and again on 11 – 15
March, due to recurrent coronal holes.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to range from quiet to minor storm
levels.  A small coronal hole is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position on 01-04 March and may produce periods of
minor storm activity.  A second coronal hole high speed stream is
due to return on 09 – 14 March and is expected to produce active to
minor storm conditions.