:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2004 Jan 06 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 December 2003 - 04 January 2004

Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels during the period. 
Activity was at low levels for most of the period.  Region 528 (N10,
L=261, class/area Fkc/740 on 25 December) increased activity to
moderate levels on 31 December with an impulsive M1 at 1824 UTC on
31 December.  Region 528 rotated beyond the west limb on 31
December.  Late on 31 December, new Region 536 (S12, L= 073,
class/area Eko/910 on 03 January) rotated around the east limb, and
subsequently developed into a moderate sized Eko spot group. 
Initially, Region 536 was a magnetic beta configuration, but at the
time of this report this region had developed more complexity as a
beta-gamma-delta configuration.  The region produced two long
duration C8 flares on 31 December and 01 January as well as numerous
minor C-class flares.  Subsequent to the summary period Region 536
produced a long duration M6 at 0345 UTC on 05 January and at the
time of this report (06 January) newly numbered Region 537 (N04 E84)
on the east limb produced an M5 flare at 0629 UTC.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft during most of the summary period.  The
period began with wind speeds near 400 km/s.  A small coronal hole
on 31 December – 01 January increased wind speeds to near 575 km/s
with the average Bz component slightly southward.  Wind speeds
diminished on 02 January to about 450 km/s.  A large transequatorial
coronal hole rotated into a geoeffective position early on 03
January with solar wind speeds increasing to near 625 km/s and
remaining elevated for the rest of the period.  The Bz component
from this large coronal hole fluctuated between +/- 8 nT with an
average around –3 nT.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geosynchronous
orbit during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 01 – 02 January and again on 04 January.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Activity was at quiet to unsettled levels early in period.  On 31
December – 01 January, a coronal hole driven high speed stream
produced unsettled to minor storm levels.  Activity decreased on 02
January to quiet to active levels.  A large transequatorial coronal
hole rotated into a geoeffective position on 03 January and produced
unsettled to minor storm levels on 03 – 04 January.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 January - 02 February 2004

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a
chance of isolated M-class activity.  Region 536 is expected to
produce C-class flares and possibly an isolated M-class event
through 14 January.  The new region currently rotating onto the east
limb is likely to have the potential for isolated M-class flares for
the first half of the period.  Activity during the second half of
the period is expected to be at low levels.

There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from
536, and perhaps from new Region 537 as in rotates onto the disk.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 07 – 14 January, 17 – 19 January
and again on 28 – 29 January due to recurrent coronal holes.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to range from quiet major storm
levels.  Unsettled to major storm levels are possible early in
period due to the large coronal hole driven high speed stream.  Two
smaller recurrent coronal holes are expected to return on 16 – 17
January and 27 – 28 January, and are expected to produce active to
minor storm level activity.