Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on November 23, 2003 at 05:00 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update November 22, 2003)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on November 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 460 and 595 km/sec. A high speed stream from coronal hole CH68 arrived at ACE at approximately 10h UTC and has since then caused unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 176.2. The planetary A index was 22 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 23.1).
Three hour interval K indices: 33333554 (planetary), 32223444 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.

At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 9 C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10501 decayed further and lost its magnetic delta structures. Flares: C1.1 at 02:34, C2.0 at 03:42, C1.1 at 05:25 and C2.9 at 21:43 UTC.
Region 10505 reemerged with a few small spots.
Region 10506 decayed and could soon become spotless. Flares: C1.7 at 14:28 and C1.1 at 22:35 UTC.
Region 10507 developed slowly and has at least two magnetic delta structures. Major flares are possible. Flares: C1.2 at 18:36 and C3.9 at 21:13 UTC.
Region 10508 was mostly unchanged. The spots in the north could be a separate region, they are somewhat removed from the other spots and appear to be a distinct bipolar group in magnetograms. Flare: C2.1 at 02:53 UTC.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S308] A new region is rotating into view at the southeast limb. Location at midnight: S10E80.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 21-22: No partly or fully earth directed CMEs observed.

November 20: A faint full halo CME was observed after the M9.6 flare in region 10501, in LASCO C2 images the CME was first visible at 08:06 UTC.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A coronal hole (CH68) in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 20-21. A new and developing coronal hole (CH69) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 22.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:05 UTC on November 23. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on November 23-25 due to high speed streams from coronal holes CH68 and CH69.

Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor to very poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay].

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.