Last major update issued on November 17, 2003 at 05:00 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November
4, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update November 12, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was active to minor storm on November 16. Solar wind speed ranged between 614 and 871 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH66.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 104.4. The planetary A
index was 35 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 36.3).
Three hour interval K indices: 45554544 (planetary), 55544444 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 6 C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10501 developed slowly adding several small spots. The region has at least two magnetic delta structures, one
each in the main penumbrae. M class flares are likely. Flares: C1.1 at 04:07, C1.9 at 07:54,
C1.0 at 08:39, C5.5 at 10:20, C7.0 at 10:39, C4.9 at 18:16 and C2.6 at 18:53 UTC. This region was the source of an M1.2 flare at
01:34 UTC on November 17.
Region 10503 decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S304] This region rotated into view at the southeast limb on November 16. Location at midnight: S23E70.
November 14-16: No partly or fully earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28
days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A well defined recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH66) was in a geoeffective position on November 9-14. A coronal hole (CH67) in the northern hemisphere may have been in a geoeffective position on November 15-16.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:05 UTC on November 16. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on November 17 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH66. Quiet to active is likely on November 18-19.
Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay with a weak signal, some stations from Brazil noted on other frequencies].
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
 |
 |
 |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10501 | 2003.11.13 | 20 | 23 | N03E35 | 0380 | DKI | gamma-delta |
| 10502 | 2003.11.14 | N04E14 | plage | ||||
| 10503 | 2003.11.15 | 3 | 3 | N17W05 | 0010 | CSO | |
| 10504 | 2003.11.16 | 1 | N04W51 | 0000 | AXX |
formerly region S302 spotless |
|
| S303 | emerged on 2003.11.14 |
N12W27 | plage | ||||
| S304 | visible on 2003.11.16 |
2 | S23E70 | 0010 | BXO | ||
| Total spot count: | 24 | 28 | |||||
| SSN: | 54 | 58 | |||||
| Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
| 2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
| 2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
| 2002.10 | 167.0 | 97.5 | 90.5 (-4.1) |
| 2002.11 | 168.7 | 95.5 | 85.2 (-5.3) |
| 2002.12 | 157.2 | 80.8 | 82.0 (-3.2) |
| 2003.01 | 144.0 | 79.7 | 80.9 (-1.1) |
| 2003.02 | 124.5 | 46.0 | 78.5 (-2.4) |
| 2003.03 | 131.4 | 61.1 | 74.1 (-4.4) |
| 2003.04 | 126.4 | 60.0 | 70.3 (-3.8) |
| 2003.05 | 115.7 | 55.2 | (66.8 predicted, -3.5) |
| 2003.06 | 129.3 | 77.4 | (63.0 predicted, -3.8) |
| 2003.07 | 127.7 | 85.0 | (59.3 predicted, -3.7) |
| 2003.08 | 122.1 | 72.7 | (56.3 predicted, -3.0) |
| 2003.09 | 112.2 | 48.8 | (54.3 predicted, -2.0) |
| 2003.10 | 151.7 | 65.6 | (51.6 predicted, -2.7) |
| 2003.11 | 119.8 (1) | 34.4 (2) | (48.9 predicted, -2.7) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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