:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2003 Oct 14 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 - 12 October 2003

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels.  The period began
with very low level activity on 06 October.  Low levels were
observed on 7 October due to minor C-class activity from Region 471.
Region 471 (S08, L=222, class/area Eac/270 on 08 October), a
moderately complex group, was the largest and most active region on
the visible disk this period and was responsible for the majority of
activity observed.  Low level activity was again observed on the 8th
and 10th due to minor C-class flares from Region 471.  Very low
levels were observed during the remainder of the period with no
significant developments or activity noted on the disk or limb.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  Solar
wind speed was elevated to start the period due to a high speed
coronal hole stream with wind speeds near 600 km/s.  IMF Bz was
mostly northward, but there were a few short periods of southward Bz
noted early in the period.  The high speed stream went into a brief
declining phase late on the 7th before rising again due to another
high stream.  Speeds ranged from approximately 550 to 650 km/s
through early on the 9th, but gradually declined for the remainder
of the period, to speeds below 400 km/s by the end of the period. 
IMF Bz was mostly northward throughout this period.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geosynchronous
orbit during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained
below high levels throughout this period.

Geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  The
geomagnetic field was mildly disturbed for the first half of the
period due to high speed coronal hole flow.  Occasional active
periods occurred with very isolated minor storm periods observed at
higher latitudes.  The latter half of the period was quiet with just
very isolated unsettled levels observed.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 October - 10 November 2003

Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low levels with
a chance of isolated M-class events.  There are no regions on the
visible disk at this time that appear capable of anything other than
a very isolated low C-class flare.  Old active Region 464 is due to
return to visible disk early in the period and may have the
potential to elevate the solar activity levels.

No greater than 10 MeV proton events at geosynchronous orbit are
expected during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 16 – 26 October, 3 – 4 November,
and again on 10 November.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm
levels during the period.  The large recurrent coronal hole is due
to return early in the period and is expected to produce occasional
major storm levels.  Effects from this large coronal hole will
likely persist through 24 October.  Isolated active periods are
expected on 28 October through 4 November.  Isolated minor to major
storm periods are possible on 09 – 10 November due to a high speed
coronal hole stream.