:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts :Issued: 2003 Jul 08 2212 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Product description and SEC contact on the Web # http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html # # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts # Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 June - 06 July 2003 Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. The period began on 30 June with low level activity including a C8/Sf flare at 0225 UTC from Region 396 (S06, L=128, class/area Eao/160 on 30 June). Region 397 (N11, L=033, class/area Fkc/930 on 06 July) was in a steady growth phase early in the period forming a delta magnetic configuration in the trailing spots on 30 June. On 01 – 02 July this region showed some decay simplifying to a beta-gamma configuration. Steady growth began again on 03 July, and by 05 July a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration developed. Activity from Region 397 consisted of C-class flares on 01 July and 03 – 06 July. The largest event of the period came from Region 397, an M3/Sf flare at 0728 UTC on 02 July. Region 400 (N04, L=349, class/area/mag. Dso/90/B on 02 July) rotated onto the visible disk on 01 July and exhibited steady growth until 05 July. Activity from Region 400 consisted of C-class flares on 02 – 05 July including a C7/1f flare on 04 July at 1442 UTC. Moderate level activity was observed from Region 400 on 06 July with an M2/Sf at 0011 UTC. Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period. The period began on 30 June with solar wind speeds near 800 km/s and in gradual decline. By 02 July, wind speed reached 450 km/s. Late on 02 July and through 04 July solar wind speed was somewhat variable but increasing due to another coronal hole high speed stream. On 04 – 05 July, solar wind speed was steady near 750 km/s. Late on 05 July, solar wind speed began to decline as the coronal hole rotated out of a geoeffective position and ended the period near 600 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was, on average slightly southward for much of the period. There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geosynchronous orbit during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels everyday during the period, 30 June – 06 July. The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Activity on 30 June was associated with an exiting coronal hole high speed stream and reached unsettled to active levels with one period of isolated minor storm levels. Activity on 01 – 03 July was at quiet to active levels. A second coronal hole high speed stream produced minor storm levels on 04 July and unsettled to active levels on 05 July. The period ended on 06 July with quiet to unsettled conditions. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 July - 04 August 2003 Solar activity is expected to range from very low to moderate levels but predominantly at low levels. Region 397 and Region 400 have the potential for moderate level activity before they rotate beyond the west limb on 09 July and 13 July, respectively. Activity for the remainder of the period is expected to be at very low to low levels. No greater than 10 MeV proton events at geosynchronous orbit are expected during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 06 – 08 July, 12 – 14 July, 16 – 18 July, 20 – 28 July, and again on 30 July – 02 August due to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels during the period. Minor storm levels are possible on 11 – 12 July due to a small recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Unsettled to major storm levels are possible on 14– 16 July due to small but intense coronal hole high speed stream. A large southern coronal hole is due to return on 23 - 27 July with major storm levels possible. The trailing portion of this large coronal hole will be in a geoeffective position on 29 July – 01 August and is expected to produce minor storm levels.