:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2003 Jun 24 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 June 2003

Solar activity ranged from very low to high levels.  The period began
on 16 June with moderate activity from Region 386 (S07, L=187,
class/area Ekc/290 on 18 June), which included two M1 flares. 
Region 386 developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration on 18
June and maintained it through the end of the period.  Activity
increased to high levels on 17 June with an M6 flare at 2255 UTC
from Region 386.  The M6 event was associated with a Type II (1000
km/s) and Type IV radio sweep and a full halo CME.  On 18 – 19 June
activity was at very low levels.  Regions 386 and 388 (S03, L=211
class/area Eai/140 on 21 June) produced low level activity on 20 –
22 June with the largest flare a C2/Sf at 1313 UTC on 21 June from
Region 388.  Region 388 developed near center disk on 19 June and
produced minor C-class flares on 21 – 22 June.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  Solar
wind speed ranged from 450 - 550 km/s early in the period, 16 – 17
June.  The onset of a coronal hole high speed stream on 18 June
increased wind speed to near 650 km/s with peaks near 750 km/s.  For
the remainder of the period solar wind speed remained elevated at
around 550 km/s.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event occurred at geosynchronous orbit
and was likely associated with the M6 flare on 17 June.  The proton
event began on 18 June at 2050 UTC, reached a peak value of 24 pfu
at 0450 UTC on 19 June, and ended at 1900 UTC on 19 June.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels on 20 – 22 June.

The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. 
Late on 16 June through 17 June periods of prolonged southward Bz
produced active to major storm levels.  On 18 June, a discontinuity
was observed starting around 04 UTC and was followed by enhancements
in the solar wind plasma and magnetic field data.  The geomagnetic
response to this disturbance was active to major storm levels with
one period of severe storm levels at 18/06 – 09 UTC.  From 19 – 22
June activity was predominantly at unsettled to active conditions. 
Isolated periods of minor storm levels were observed on 19 June and
again on 21 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 June - 21 July 2003

Solar activity is expected to range from very low to high levels
during the period.  Region 391 (N15, L=163, class/area Dao/110 on 24
June) is currently in a growth phase and may produce low to moderate
activity early in the period.  On 27 June, old Region 375 is due to
return and may have major flare potential.

There is a chance of a greater than 10 MeV proton events at
geosynchronous orbit in connection with a major flare when old
Region 375 returns.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 30 June – 03 July, 06 – 07 July, 13 – 14 July and again on 17 –
19 July due to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm
levels during the period.  Unsettled to major storm levels are
possible on 29 – 30 June and again on 10 – 16 July due to coronal
hole high speed streams.  Minor storm levels are possible on 25 – 26
June, 03 - 07 July, and again on 18 – 20 July due to smaller
recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.