:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2003 Jun 17 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 June 2003

Solar activity ranged from moderate to high levels.  Region 375 (N12,
L=026, class/area Fkc/1250 on 11 June) was the largest and most
complex region of the period and was the primary source of major
flare activity.  This region exhibited steady growth during its
transit and had a strong beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration
when it rotated beyond the west limb on 14 June.  Activity on 09 –
12 June was at high levels due to numerous M-class and three X-class
events from Region 375.  On 09 June, the largest event of the period
occurred, an X1.7 flare at 2139 UTC with an associated ten-flare.  
SOHO/LASCO imagery observed a CME associated with this event;
however, the CME was directed toward the northwest and did not
appear to be Earth bound.  Other notable activity on 09 June
included an M4/1n flare at 1125 UTC with an associated Type II (666
km/s) radio sweep.  Region 375 produced ten M-class flares on 10
June with two flares greater than M5; an M5.1/1n at 1115 UTC and an
M5.6/Sf at 1815 UTC.  On 11 June, Region 375 continued producing
major activity with an X1.3/2b and an X1.6/1n at 0002 UTC and 2014
UTC respectively.   The X1.6 was associated with a Type II radio
sweep (490 km/s).  A twenty-seven degree solar filament near S37E12
erupted on 11 June at 1730 UTC.  Activity on 12 June consisted of
four M-class flares from Region 375, the largest an M7/1f at 0130
UTC.  Moderate levels of activity were observed on 13 – 14 June with
three M-class events from Region 375 on 13 June and an M1 flare from
a new region beyond the southeast limb on 14 June.  The new region
beyond the southeast limb is likely old Region 365 (S07, L=181)
which was very active during its last rotation.  At the time of this
report this new Region has been designated as Region 386 (S07,
L=187, class/area Dao/190 on 16 June).  Activity was high on 15 June
due to an X1/Sf from Region 386 at 2356 UTC.  Associated with this
X-class event was a Type II (841 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as
well as a full halo CME.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  The
period began with a coronal hole high speed flow producing solar
wind speed near 700 km/s on 09 – 10 June.  From 11 – 13 June, solar
wind speed was in a gradual decline to 400 km/s.  Wind speed
increased on 14 June to near 550 km/s and remained at that level
through the end of the period.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field exhibited oscillations between +/- 5
nT for most of the period.  Early on 14 June, Bz was oriented
southward for a ten-hour period, but turned primarily northward from
the latter half of 14 June through the end of the period on 15 June.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geosynchronous
orbit during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels on 09 – 13 June.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. 
Isolated major storm levels were observed on 09 – 10 June due to the
coronal hole high speed stream.  As the high speed flow subsided,
activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels on 11 – 13 June.  On
14 - 15 June, activity reached unsettled to minor storm levels due
to the extended period of southward Bz.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 June - 14 July 2003

Solar activity is expected to range from low to high levels during
the period.  For the first half of the period Region 386 will have
the potential for M-class and X-class activity.  On 27 June, Region
375 is due to return and may have M-class potential during the
second half of the period.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible early in the period
because of the potential for a major event from Region 386.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 21 – 23 June, 30 June – 03 July, and again on 06 – 07 July.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm
levels during the period.  Unsettled to major storm levels are
possible early in the period and again on 29 – 30 June due to
coronal hole high speed streams.  Minor storm levels are possible on
18 – 20 June, 25 – 26 June, and again on 03 - 07 July due to more
high speed streams.