:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2003 Jun 10 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 June 2003

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. The period began on 02
June with high levels of activity from Region 365 (S07, L=182,
class/area Dkc/880 on 29 May) and moderate levels of activity from
Region 375 (N13, L=22, class/area Ekc/800 on 08 June).  Although
Region 365 rotated around the west limb early on 01 June it still
produced an M6 flare at 02/0022 UTC, with an associated Type II (700
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as moderate level metric and
centimetric radio bursts.  Just hours later, an M3 erupted from the
same region at 0837 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep. 
Both flares produced CMEs, but neither appeared to have any
earthbound component. The day ended with two M1 flares one from
Region 365 and the other from Region 375.  Activity on 03 – 05 June
was at low levels with the majority of activity coming from Region
375.  This region was the largest and most complex group on the
visible disk during the period.  On 06 June, Region 375 entered a
significant growth phase and developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration.  Late on 06 June, an M1 flare was observed from
Region 375 at 2338 UTC with an associated Type II (383 km/s) radio
sweep.  Activity returned to low levels on 07 June with six C-class
flares from Region 375.  Region 380 (S15, L=308, class/area Eki/550
on 08 June) rotated onto the visible disk on 07 June exhibiting
steady growth and increasing magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). 
Activity from Region 380 reached moderate levels on 08 June with an
impulsive M4 flare at 1611 UTC.  Region 375 produced mid to high
level C-class flares on 08 June and maintained its beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  The
period began with solar wind speed elevated near 650 km/s due to a
large recurrent coronal hole.  From 02 – 04 June the high speed flow
increased solar wind speed to near 900 km/s with a relatively weak
Bz component ranging between +/- 8 nT.  On 05 June, solar wind speed
decreased to 500 km/s.  The trailing portion of the large recurrent
coronal hole increased solar wind speed on 06 – 08 June with peak
values near 825 km/s.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geo-synchronous
orbit during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels on 03 – 07 June.

The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. 
The period began on 02 June with predominantly active to major storm
levels.  On 03 – 04 June activity was at predominantly unsettled to
active with isolated minor storming and high latitude major/severe
storming due to a large recurrent coronal hole.  As the high speed
stream subsided, the geomagnetic field responded with a return to
mostly unsettled conditions on 05 – 06 June.  The trailing portion
of the large recurrent coronal hole rotated into a geo-effective
position on 06 – 08 June resulting in active levels with isolated
periods of minor storm levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 June - 07 July 2003

Solar activity is expected to range from low to high levels during
the period.  Regions 365, 375 and 380 have the potential to produce
major events during the period.   A major event is possible from
Region 375 and 380 early in the period and from Region 365 when it
returns to the visible disk on 15 June.  Late in the period Regions
375 and 380 are due to return to visible disk and will keep the
forecast at moderate levels through the end of the period.

A greater than 10 MeV proton events is possible early in the period
in association with a major flare event from Region 375 or 380.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 11 – 13 June, 30 June – 03 July, and again on 06 – 07 July.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm
levels during the period.  Quiet to active levels are expected
during the first half of the period with isolated minor storm levels
possible.   With the return of a large southern coronal hole on 28
June activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels
with isolated major storm levels possible.