Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update issued on March 22, 2003 at 01:30 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 3, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 3, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 3, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update January 27, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update March 17, 2003)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on March 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 609 and 755 km/sec under the influence of a high speed coronal hole stream.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 91.0 (this is the lowest recorded solar flux level at 20h UTC since May 23, 1998). The planetary A index was 29 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 29.6).
Three hour interval K indices: 55454334 (planetary), 55454234 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded during the day, both from region 10314 (now behind the southwest limb), a C1.1 flare at 09:10 and a C1.8 flare at 14:29 UTC.

Region 10316 was quiet and stable.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 19-21: No obviously geoeffective CMEs observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A well placed, developing and recurrent coronal hole (CH26) mainly in the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on March 22-23. A coronal hole (CH27) in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on March 24-25.

Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on March 21. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 22-24 due to a high speed stream, then unsettled to minor storm from late on March 24 until March 26 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH26. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor, propagation along north-south paths is fair. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Morro Verde (Brasil)]

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.