Last update issued on March 7, 2003 at 03:25 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data
- last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron
fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last
update March 3, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of
cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 3, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of
cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 3, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic
data charts 1954-2002 (last update January 27, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update March 3, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on March 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 462 and 569 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH24. An additional disturbance may have arrived at 09:45 UTC at ACE.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 150.3. The planetary A
index was 25 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 26.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 44445333 (planetary), 43433333 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was very low.
Region 10295 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10296 decayed slowly in all sections. A couple of small negative polarity spots emerged ahead of the huge
positive polarity penumbra.
Region 10297 decayed and lost most of the spots it had gained the previous day.
Region 10300 decayed and became spotless, then reemerged with a single spot.
Region 10301 lost several small spots and was otherwise mostly unchanged..
Region 10302 was quiet and stable.
March 4-6: No obviously geoeffective CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28
days ago 27 days ago 26
days ago
A coronal hole (CH24) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on March 2-3.
Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on March 6. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 7 due to a high speed stream from CH24 with quiet to unsettled likely on March 8-10. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor, propagation along north-south paths is fair to good. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay and CPN Radio (Peru).]
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
 |
|
|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
| Solar region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10293 | 2003.02.27 | S17W63 | plage | ||||
| 10294 | 2003.02.27 | 1 | S10W54 | now spotless | |||
| 10295 | 2003.02.27 | 4 | 3 | S18W25 | 0040 | DAO |
classification was HAX at midnight, only negative polarity spots |
| 10296 | 2003.02.28 | 14 | 22 | N12W05 | 0470 | DKI |
beta-gamma classification was EKI at midnight, STAR spot count includes region 10299 |
| 10297 | 2003.03.01 | 6 | 7 | S15E00 | 0030 | DAO |
classification was CAO at midnight, only negative polarity spots |
| 10298 | 2003.03.03 | S08W21 | plage | ||||
| 10299 | 2003.03.03 | 15 | N13E06 | 0030 | CRO |
only negative polarity spots, these are the trailing spots of region 10296 |
|
| 10300 | 2003.03.03 | 2 | 1 | N17E25 | 0010 | AXX |
classification was HRX at midnight |
| 10301 | 2003.03.04 | 8 | 5 | N22E08 | 0040 | DAO | |
| 10302 | 2003.03.04 | 2 | 1 | N20E35 | 0020 | CRO |
classification was HSX at midnight |
| S114 | emerged on 2003.03.01 |
S14W88 | plage | ||||
| S115 | emerged on 2003.03.02 |
S19W34 | plage | ||||
| S116 | emerged on 2003.03.02 |
N13W56 | plage | ||||
| S117 | visible on 2003.03.02 |
S25E22 | plage | ||||
| S118 | emerged on 2003.03.04 |
S26W63 | plage | ||||
| S119 | emerged on 2003.03.04 |
S15W11 | plage | ||||
| Total spot count: | 52 | 39 | |||||
| SSN: | 132 | 99 | |||||
| Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
| 2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
| 2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
| 2002.02 | 205.0 | 107.4 | 114.6 (+1.2) |
| 2002.03 | 179.5 | 98.4 | 113.3 (-1.3) |
| 2002.04 | 189.8 | 120.7 | 110.5 (-2.9) |
| 2002.05 | 178.4 | 120.8 | 108.8 (-1.7) |
| 2002.06 | 148.7 | 88.3 | 106.2 (-2.6) |
| 2002.07 | 173.5 | 99.6 | 102.7 (-3.5) |
| 2002.08 | 183.6 | 116.4 | 98.7 (-4.0) |
| 2002.09 | 175.8 | 109.6 | (94.7 predicted, -4.0) |
| 2002.10 | 167.0 | 97.5 | (91.2 predicted, -3.5) |
| 2002.11 | 168.7 | 95.0 | (86.0 predicted, -5.2) |
| 2002.12 | 157.2 | 81.6 | (81.6 predicted, -4.4) |
| 2003.01 | 144.0 | 79.5 | (78.6 predicted, -3.0) |
| 2003.02 | 124.5 | 46.2 | (73.6 predicted, -5.0) |
| 2003.03 | 144.2 (1) | 20.7 (2) | (67.9 predicted, -5.7) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official
international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
| [DX-Listeners' Club] |