:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2003 Mar 04 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 February - 02 March 2003

Solar activity was at very low to low levels.  The period began with
low level activity on 24 February due to a C1 flare from Region 290
(N17, L=331, class/area Eki/360 on 21 February).   Activity
decreased to very low levels on 25 – 26 February with B-class flares
primarily from Region 290.  For the remainder of the period, 27
February – 02 March, activity returned to low levels.  Region 296
(N12, L=169, class/area Dko/640 on 01 March) was the source of most
of the C-class activity on 28 February as it rotated onto the
visible disk.  On 01 March, Region 297 (S15, L=162, class/area
Dso/50 on 02 March) produced the largest event of the period, a C5
flare at 0136 UTC.  Region 296 was also active on 01 March with
numerous minor C-class events.  At the close of the period Region
296 developed some mixing polarity in the trailing spots.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  Late on
26 February, a sector boundary crossing was observed and followed on
27 February, by a corotating interacting region and coronal hole
high speed stream.  Solar wind speed increased to over 600 km/s and
periods of moderate to strong southward Bz near – 20 nT were
associated with the CIR.  Solar wind velocity gradually decreased
over the remainder of the period and was at 350 km/s at the close of
the period.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geo-synchronous
orbit during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels on 24 and 28 February, and again on 01 March.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  On 24 – 25
February, activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.  On 26 – 28
February, a coronal hole high speed stream rotated into a
geo-effective position and produced unsettled to active conditions
at mid latitudes and minor to major storm levels at higher
latitudes.    For the remainder of the period, 01 – 02 March
residual effects from the coronal hole produced unsettled to
isolated active conditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 - 31 March 2003

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance
of moderate activity.  Region 296 has the potential for isolated
M-class activity until it rotates beyond the west limb on 13 March. 
After 13 March, activity is expected to be very low to low.

No greater than 10 MeV proton events are expected during the forecast
period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels on 05 –
07, 19 – 24, and 27 – 28 March due to returning coronal holes.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm
levels.  Unsettled to isolated minor storm conditions are possible
on 05 March due to a high speed stream.  A large southern coronal
hole is expected to return to a geo-effective position on 14 – 21
March and is expected to produce unsettled to isolated minor storm
conditions.  Two smaller but intense coronal holes are due on 25 –
27 March and 30 – 31 March and are expected to produce active to
isolated major storm levels.

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