:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2003 Feb 18 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 February 2003

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels.   The period began with
B-class and minor C-class flares on 10 – 11 February.  The most
significant activity during this time was a long duration C1 on the
west limb that occurred on 10 February at 2124 UTC. An associated
CME was not Earth directed.  On 12 February, Region 280 (S07, L=149,
class/area Dso/40 on 08 February) produced two C-class flares, the
largest was a C8.7 flare at 0151 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep (632 km/s) and minor centimetric radio bursts.  LASCO
imagery indicated a narrow CME that was not Earth directed.  On 12 –
13 February, Region 282 (N10, L=128, class/area Dso/50 on 13
February) produced four C-class events as the region exhibited a
two-day growth phase.   Moderate levels were observed on 14 February
with a west limb, impulsive M1.2/Sf at 0918 UTC from Region 284
(N13, L=162, class/area Cso/20 on 09 February).  While transiting
the west limb Region 284 was also the source of 3 C-class flares. 
Activity on 15 – 16 February was at low levels.  A long duration
C4.5 flare was observed on 15 February from Region 276 (S14, L=160)
on the west limb at 0810 UTC.  Associated with this event was a CME
that did not appear to be Earth directed.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  The
period began with declining solar wind speed to near 400 km/s and
was associated with the subsiding effects of a coronal hole. Late on
13 February, solar wind speed increased as part of a co-rotating
interacting region (CIR).  On 14-15 February, following the CIR,
solar wind speeds began a gradual rise marking arrival of the high
speed flow from a large southern coronal hole.  Solar wind speed
stabilized near 650 km/s on 16 February.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geo-synchronous
orbit during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels at the beginning and end of the period.  High levels
were observed on 10 – 11 February and again on 15 – 16 February.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The period
began with residual effects of a coronal hole producing unsettled to
active conditions on 10-11 February.  Activity was mostly quiet to
unsettled on 12 – 13 February.  A CIR and large southern coronal
hole increased activity to quiet to active conditions on 14 – 16
February.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 February - 17 March 2003

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels early in the period. 
Activity and growth of Regions 276, 280, 282 and 284 as they
transited the west limb, would indicate the potential for continued
growth of these regions as they transit the backside.  With the
return of these regions around 28 February, there is an increased
potential for isolated moderate activity.

No greater than 10 MeV proton events are expected during the forecast
period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 19 – 25 February due to recurring coronal holes.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated minor
storm levels during the period.  Minor storm conditions are possible
on 19 -22 February due to the large southern coronal hole and on 03
March due to a returning coronal hole.  Isolated active conditions
are possible on 03 - 05 March and 13 - 17 March due to returning
coronal holes.


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