:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2003 Feb 11 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 - 09 February 2003

Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels.  Very isolated low
C-class flares were observed through the first half of the period,
primarily from Regions 276 (S14, L=160, class/area Eai/280 on 04
February), 277 (S21, L=132, class/area Cro/020 on 08 February) and
278 (N18, L=122, class/area Dao/130 on 08 February).  Region 278
rotated onto the visible disk on 04 February producing considerable
surging and occasional subflares.  This region eventually raised
activity levels to moderate by producing an M1/1n on 06 February,
but quickly transitioned to a decay phase following the event. 
Activity levels for the remainder of the period were low to very low
with isolated minor C-class flares observed. By the end of the
period, several small spot groups with simple magnetic
configurations dominated the visible disk.  For flare times and
magnitudes, please refer to Energetic and Optical Flare Lists.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  The
period began with slightly elevated, but declining solar wind speed
following the CME impact, midday on 01 February.  A slow return of
speed and magnetic field intensity to nominal values occurred on 03
February.  The quiescent period was short-lived as a gradual rise in
wind speed and temperature indicated a transition into a high-speed
stream by 04 February.  This high-speed stream, associated with a
favorably positioned coronal hole, persisted through 06 February and
reached speeds in excess of 600 km/s.  The speed declined by the
6th, but remained elevated, averaging 450 – 500 km/s through 08
February.  The period ended with near nominal speeds of 450 km/s. 
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data were consistent with a
high-speed coronal flow for most of the period.  Occasional,
short-lived periods of southward turning Bz within the
interplanetary magnetic field were noted throughout the period.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geo-synchronous
orbit during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit were
elevated through the entire period.  Fluxes reached high levels on
03 February, and again on 05 – 09 February.  This extended elevated
period began back on 20 January; we have now exceeded high threshold
levels in fifteen of the last eighteen days.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  Active to
minor storm periods were observed early in the period as we
transitioned from transient effects to high speed coronal hole flow.
Local nighttime hours on the 4th saw the most active levels.  The
remainder of the period was predominately unsettled to active with
occasional quiet levels.  Occasional periods of southward turning Bz
within the interplanetary magnetic field were associated with times
of the most enhanced geomagnetic activity.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 February - 10 March 2003

Solar activity is expected to be mostly low with occasional moderate
levels during the period.

No greater than 10 MeV proton events are expected during the forecast
period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 15 – 19 February due to recurring coronal holes.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated major
storm levels during the period.  Minor storming with isolated major
storm conditions are possible on 15 -18 February due to a returning
equatorial coronal hole.


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