:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2003 Jan 21 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 - 19 January 2003

Solar activity was at very low to low levels.  On 13 – 17 January,
activity was at low levels with the largest event a C6 flare on the
west limb on 14 January from Region 242 (S07, L=218, class/area
Dai/300 on 11 January).  For flare times and magnitudes please refer
to the Energetic Events and Flare List.  Region 242 also initiated
sympathetic flaring in Region 244 (S23, L=209, class/area Cao/090 on
06 January) on 13 January, producing a C4 flare.  On 14 January,
Region 242 and 244 rotated beyond the west limb and on 16 January
Region 255 (S13, L=130, class/area Cko/200 on 13 January) produced a
C5 flare.   The only region to show and increase in area coverage or
magnetic complexity was Region 259 (N10, L=053, class/area Eao/060
on 19 January).   However, activity from this region consisted of
only minor plage fluctuations and optical sub-flaring.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.   On 19
January, solar wind velocity increased with peak velocities near 600
km/s due the southern extension of the northern coronal hole
rotating into a geo-effective position.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field reached an average value of negative 5
nT on 18 – 19 January.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geo-synchronous
orbit during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit were at
low to moderate levels during the period.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Active
conditions were observed on 18 - 19 January due to a southern polar
extension.  Activity was at quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 – 17
January.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 January - 17 February 2003

Solar activity is expected to be low during the period.  At the time
of this report activity on the east limb suggests a potentially
active region rotating onto the visible disk.  This is expected to
result in isolated moderate levels early in the period and low
during the latter half of the period.

No greater than 10 MeV proton events are expected during the forecast
period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 25 – 28 January and again on 01 – 02 February due to recurring
coronal holes.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated major
storm levels during the period.  Isolated minor to major storm
conditions are possible on 23 -24 January due to a returning
transequatorial coronal hole.   Isolated active conditions are
possible on 30 – 31 January due to a smaller recurring coronal hole.


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