:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2003 Jan 14 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 - 12 January 2003

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels.  Moderate levels were
observed on 07 – 09 January.  The largest event of the period was an
impulsive M4/Sf flare on 08 January from Region 251 (S13, L=125,
class/area Eao/330 on 09 January).  For flare times and magnitudes
please refer to the Energetic Event and Flare List.  Region 251
appeared on the visible disk on 07 January, and over the next few
days developed into a moderate sized spot group with a beta gamma
magnetic configuration.    By 12 January, it became apparent that
Region 251 contained two distinct bipoles; consequently, the region
was separated.  Region 251 (S14, L=123, class/area Eai/120 on 12
January) remained with the trailing spots, and Region 255 (S13,
L=117, class/area Cko/200 on 12 January) was the new designation for
the leader spots.  Region 244 (S23, L=209, class/area Cao/090 on 06
January) produced an M1/1f flare on 07 January as well as six
C-class flares.  By the close of the period, Region 244 decayed to a
small spot group with a simplified beta magnetic configuration. 
Region 242 (S08, L=219, class/area Dac/370 on 08 January) was a
mildly active beta-gamma region that produced a number of C-class
events and numerous optical sub-flares throughout the period.  On 12
January, Region 242 had shown slight decay, as it approached the
west limb, and simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  On 10
January, solar wind speed increased to near 500 km/s and slowly
decayed back to 400 km/s over the next couple of days. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly
positive throughout the period.

There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geo-synchronous
orbit during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels on 06 January.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  On 11
January, a weak high speed coronal hole stream produced active
conditions early in the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 January - 10 February 2003

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the forecast
period.  There is a slight chance of M-class activity from Region
251/255 complex early in the period and again late in the period
when it is due to return.

No greater than 10 MeV proton events are expected during the forecast
period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 17-18 January, on 25 – 28 January and again on 01 – 02 February
due to recurring coronal holes.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm
conditions during the period.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on 15-16 January due to a weak recurring coronal hole. 
Minor to major storm conditions are possible on 23 -24 January due
to a returning transequatorial coronal hole that was 30 degrees wide
during its last rotation.   Isolated active conditions are possible
on 30 – 31 January due to a smaller recurring coronal hole.


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