Last update January 7, 2003 at 03:15 UTC. Minor update posted at 08:24 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data
- last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron
fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last
update January 1, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of
cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of
cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic
data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)]
[Archived reports (last update January 6, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 369 and 428 km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 162.1. The planetary A
index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.8).
Three hour interval K indices: 22223332 (planetary), 12212222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
At midnight there were 9 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not yet been numbered. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 4 C class events were recorded during the day. An optically unaccounted C2.9 event occurred at 14:29 UTC.
Region 10239 reemerged quickly with several spots after noon.
Region 10242 developed fairly quickly adding a significant amount of penumbra in all parts of the region. Although the
region is not currently very complex, there is a chance of an M
class flare.
Region 10243 decayed slowly and will be rotating over the southwest limb today and tomorrow. Flare:
C1.0 at 08:17 UTC.
Region 10244 developed slowly and was mostly quiet. Flare: C2.7 at 09:43 UTC.
Region 10245 was mostly unchanged and quiet.
New region 10246 emerged in the northeast quadrant on January 5 and was numbered one day later. The region decayed slightly
on Jan.6.
New region 10247 emerged quickly after noon near the southeast limb.
Spotted regions not yet numbered by SEC/NOAA:
[S66] A new region emerged to the northeast of region 10239 on January 4. The region was mostly unchanged on Jan.5 and
decayed slowly on Jan.6. Location at midnight: S05W63. Unfortunately and confusingly SEC/NOAA
decided to reuse region number 10240.
[S67] This region first emerged in the southeast quadrant on January 4, then decayed and became spotless the next day. A
single spot reemerged just before midnight UTC on January 6.
Comment added at 08:24 UTC on January 7: Region 10244 was at center
of an M1.0 event peaking at 07:50 UTC. This event may have involved a filament
near the region, a filament which was quite active prior to the eruption. If
there was a CME associated with this event, another update will be posted within
a few hours.
Otherwise a new region will soon be rotating into view at the southeast limb.
This region appears to be quite interesting and could have M class flare
potential.
January 4-6: No obviously geoeffective CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28
days ago
27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial extension of the northern polar coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on January 6.
Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on January 6. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 7-8 becoming quiet to active on January 9-10 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
 |
 |
 |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included. Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
| Solar region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10239 | 2002.12.29 | 3 | 4 | S09W73 (SEC: S07W67) |
0020 | BXO |
location corrected area was 0060 at midnight, classification CAO then |
| 10240 | 2002.12.30 | 3 | S08W56 (SEC: S08W65) |
0010 | CSO |
actually spotless location corrected see region S66 below |
|
| 10242 | 2003.01.02 | 27 | 38 | S08E03 | 0190 | DAC |
beta-gamma area approx. 0450 at midnight, classification EAI |
| 10243 | 2003.01.03 | 9 | 11 | S19W73 | 0150 | CAO |
classification was DAO at midnight |
| 10244 | 2003.01.03 | 13 | 15 | S23E14 | 0090 | CAO |
classification was DAO at midnight, area near 0140 |
| 10245 | 2003.01.03 | 2 | 3 | N11E33 | 0030 | HAX |
classification was CSO at midnight, area near 0060 |
| 10246 | 2003.01.06 | 3 | 3 | N08E10 | 0010 | CRO |
formerly region S70 classification was DRO at midnight, area was 0020 |
| 10247 | 2003.01.06 | 1 | 2 | S17E73 | 0020 | HSX |
classification was HAX at midnight, area was 0050 |
| S66 | emerged on 2003.01.04 |
2 | S05W63 | 0020 | CSO | ||
| S67 | emerged on 2003.01.04 |
1 | S15E29 | 0010 | HRX | ||
| S68 | emerged on 2003.01.04 |
N02E19 | plage | ||||
| S69 | emerged on 2003.01.05 |
N13W12 | plage | ||||
| Total spot count: | 61 | 79 | |||||
| SSN: | 141 | 169 | |||||
| Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
| 2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
| 2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
| 2002.01 | 226.6 | 114.1 | 113.5 (-1.1) |
| 2002.02 | 205.0 | 107.4 | 114.6 (+1.2) |
| 2002.03 | 179.5 | 98.4 | 113.3 (-1.3) |
| 2002.04 | 189.8 | 120.7 | 110.5 (-2.9) |
| 2002.05 | 178.4 | 120.8 | 108.8 (-1.7) |
| 2002.06 | 148.7 | 88.3 | 106.2 (-2.6) |
| 2002.07 | 173.5 | 99.6 | (102.1 predicted, -4.1) |
| 2002.08 | 183.6 | 116.4 | (98.5 predicted, -3.6) |
| 2002.09 | 175.8 | 109.6 | (95.5 predicted, -3.0) |
| 2002.10 | 167.0 | 97.5 | (92.0 predicted, -3.5) |
| 2002.11 | 168.7 | 95.0 | (86.7 predicted, -5.3) |
| 2002.12 | 157.2 | 81.6 | (82.4 predicted, -4.3) |
| 2003.01 | 137.4 (1) | 19.8 (2) | (79.4 predicted, -3.0) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official
international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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