:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Dec 17 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 December 2002

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels.  Moderate levels were
observed on 10 December due to an optically uncorrelated M1 flare at
10/1226 UTC.  Early in the period Region 220 (S12, L=186, class/area
Dai/310 on 10 December) developed a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration and was the source of minor C-class flaring.  During
the latter half of the summary period, seven new regions appeared on
the visible disk.  Region 224 (S18, L=116, class/area Eai/290 on 14
December) is the most magnetically complex of the new regions,
developing a beta-gamma configuration on 14 December.  Region 226
(S28, L=127, class/area Eki/290 on 15 December) was the most active
of the new regions and exhibited rapid growth in area coverage. 
Region 226 produced over twenty optical sub-flares and seven minor
C-class flares in the first three days it was on the disk.  Region
229 (N17, L=101, class/area Dki/400 on 15 December) was the largest
spot group on the disk, but has produced only a couple of minor
C-class flares and sub-flares.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  Solar
wind velocity was below 500 km/s for most of the summary period.  On
14 December, solar wind velocities increased with peak velocities
near 600 km/s and have remained elevated through the end of the
period.  The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was,
on average, positive during the entire period.

The greater than 10 MeV protons at geo-synchronous orbit were at
background levels during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
moderate levels on 10 - 14 December.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during the
summary period.  Brief periods of active conditions were observed at
the higher latitudes on 14-15 December.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 December 2002 - 13 January 2003

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.  M-class activity
is possible during the first half of the period from Regions 224,
226, and 229.  These regions are also due to return to the visible
disk late in the period resulting in M-class potential after 08
January.

There is a slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV proton event during
the forecast period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit is
expected to reach event threshold on 21-22 December and again on 28
- 29 December due to recurring coronal holes.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels
during the forecast period.  A positive polarity coronal hole is due
to return to a geo-effective position on 18-19 December and is
expected to result in active to isolated minor storm conditions. A
weaker recurring coronal hole is expected to return on 25-28
December resulting in unsettled to isolated active conditions.

.