Solar Terrestrial Activity ReportSolar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update November 28, 2002 at 04:10 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 
2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 
2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 24, 2002)]
Recent activity
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on November 27. Solar wind speed 
ranged between 459 and 640 km/sec.
Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 142.6, the planetary A index was 21 
(STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 23.0).
Three hour interval K indices: 44444333 (planetary), 34433133 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible disk. A total of 12 C 
class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10198 developed further in the trailing spot section and could produce a 
minor M class flare while rotating over the southwest limb today. Flares: C2.4 
at 01:19, C6.7 long duration event peaking at 02:51, C2.3 at 09:43, C1.8 at 
14:28, C3.8 at 16:53, C2.9 at 22:24 and C1.9 at 23:07 UTC.
Region 10200 added a couple of small spots and was otherwise unchanged and 
quiet.
Region 10202 gained several trailing spots as the region developed slowly.
Region 10203 was quiet and stable.
New region 10204 emerged in the northeast quadrant and initially developed 
quickly. Slow decay was observed during the latter half of the day as the region 
lost most of the spots that had emerged early on.
New region 10205 rotated into view at the northeast limb on Nov.26 and was 
numbered on Nov.27.
New region 10206 emerged in the southeast quadrant early in the day with several 
spots. The region decayed after noon and could soon become spotless.
New region 10207 rotated partly into view on Nov.26 and was numbered on Nov.27. 
The region could be capable of producing occasional minor M class flares. Flare: 
C3.5 at 21:32 UTC.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
November 25-27: No obviously geoeffective CMEs noted.
Coronal holes
A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on 
November 27-28.

Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 27. The black areas on the 
solar disk are coronal holes.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 28-29. A 
coronal stream could reach Earth on Nov.30 and cause unsettled to minor storm 
conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west 
paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor.
      Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)


1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)

Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal 
hole image. Region numbering has been included.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary 
provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots 
observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC 
or where SEC has observed no spots.
      Solar regionDate numberedSEC
      spot
      countSTAR
      spot
      countLocation at midnightAreaClassificationComment
      101982002.11.1568S18W750370FKObeta-gamma 
      101992002.11.20  N28W80    
      102002002.11.2033S03W220020CSOclassification was CRO
      at midnight 
      102022002.11.24711N13E270030CSOclassification was CRO
      at midnight 
      102032002.11.2622N09E560020CSOsingle polarity spots,
      classification was HSX
      at midnight  
      102042002.11.2786N16E400040DSOarea was 0020 at
      midnight, classification
      was CRO then. 
      102052002.11.2711N19E630050HSXformerly region S36 
      102062002.11.2711S26E440010HSXclassification was AXX
      at midnight 
      102072002.11.2744S19E690220DAOformerly region S37,
      area was near 0400
      at midnight 
      Total spot count:3236
      SSN:112116

Monthly solar cycle data
      MonthAverage solar
      flux at EarthInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot number
      2000.04184.2125.5120.8
      cycle 23 sunspot max. 
      2000.07202.3170.1119.8
      2001.10207.6125.5114.0 (-0.1)
      2001.11210.6106.5115.5 (+1.5)
      2001.12235.1132.2114.6 (-0.9)
      2002.01226.6114.1113.5 (-1.1)
      2002.02205.0107.4114.7 (+1.2)
      2002.03179.598.4113.4 (-1.3)
      2002.04189.8120.7110.5 (-2.9)
      2002.05178.4120.8(109.0 predicted, -1-5)
      2002.06148.788.3(107.0 predicted, -2.0)
      2002.07173.599.9(103.6 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.08183.6116.4(100.2 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.09175.8109.3(96.4 predicted, -4.8)
      2002.10167.097.5(92.3 predicted, -4.1)
      2002.11171.6 (1)148.2 (2)(87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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