Solar Terrestrial Activity ReportSolar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update November 22, 2002 at 03:50 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 
2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 
2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 9, 2002)]
Recent activity
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to severe storm on November 21. Solar wind 
speed ranged between 467 and 716 km/sec under the influence of an unusually 
strong coronal stream. 
Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 150.9, the planetary A index was 50 
(STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 52.8). During the 06-09h 
UTC interval, i.e. the peak of the current disturbance, the planetary A index 
reached 144. This is one of the strongest peaks recorded for a coronal stream 
based disturbance.
Three hour interval K indices: 35765444 (planetary), 35655434 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not 
yet been numbered. A total of 12 C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10191 rotated out of view at the southwest limb. Flare: C6.6 at 11:04 
UTC.
Region 10194 reemerged with a single small spot.
Region 10195 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10197 was mostly unchanged and quiet..
Region 10198 decayed in the trailing spot section. Some development was observed 
near the eastern end of the huge penumbra where several spots emerged. M class 
flares are still possible. Flares: C2.1 at 03:09, C4.0 at 06:44, C2.4 at 08:12, 
C1.2 at 13:41, C3.8 at 16:47, C1.8 at 19:04, C3.8 at 19:57 and C2.2 at 20:30 
UTC.
Region 10199 developed slowly and quietly.
Region 10200 was quiet and stable.
New region 10201 emerged northeast of region 10198 on Nov.18 and was finally 
numbered on Nov.21. The region decayed slowly on Nov.21 and lost most of its 
trailing spots. The region could become spotless today.
Spotted regions not yet numbered:
[S34] A new region emerged in the northwest quadrant during the morning of 
Nov.21. Location at midnight: N14W70.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
November 19-21: No obviously geoeffective CMEs noted. A full halo CME observed 
on Nov.20 appears to have had a backside origin.
Coronal holes
An extension of the southern polar coronal hole could rotate into a geoeffective 
position on Nov.24.

Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:05 UTC on November 21. The black areas on the 
solar disk are coronal holes.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on Nov.22 and 
quiet to active on Nov.23 under the influence of a coronal stream. Long distance 
medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper 
middle latitudes is very poor.
      Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)


1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)

Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal 
hole image. Region numbering has been included.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary 
provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots 
observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC 
or where SEC has observed no spots.
      Solar regionDate numberedSEC
      spot
      countSTAR
      spot
      countLocation at midnightAreaClassificationComment
      101912002.11.081 S18W940030HSXrotated out of view 
      101942002.11.1311S17W640030HSXarea approx.0010
      at midnight 
      101952002.11.1367S17W240140EAOclassification should
      be DAO 
      101972002.11.1432N24W200320HKX  
      101982002.11.153923S18E020570FKIbeta-gamma 
      101992002.11.2085N27W000020CSO  
      102002002.11.2011N00E570070HAXlatitude appears to
      be S02 or S03
      rather than N00  
      102012002.11.2143S16W090010CSOformerly region S32 
      S34emerged on
      2002.11.21 1N14W700010HRX  
      Total spot count:6343
      SSN:143123

Monthly solar cycle data
      MonthAverage solar
      flux at EarthInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot number
      2000.04184.2125.5120.8
      cycle 23 sunspot max. 
      2000.07202.3170.1119.8
      2001.10207.6125.5114.0 (-0.1)
      2001.11210.6106.5115.5 (+1.5)
      2001.12235.1132.2114.6 (-0.9)
      2002.01226.6114.1113.5 (-1.1)
      2002.02205.0107.4114.7 (+1.2)
      2002.03179.598.4113.4 (-1.3)
      2002.04189.8120.7110.5 (-2.9)
      2002.05178.4120.8(109.0 predicted, -1-5)
      2002.06148.788.3(107.0 predicted, -2.0)
      2002.07173.599.9(103.6 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.08183.6116.4(100.2 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.09175.8109.3(96.4 predicted, -4.8)
      2002.10167.097.5(92.3 predicted, -4.1)
      2002.11179.5 (1)125.2 (2)(87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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