Solar Terrestrial Activity ReportSolar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update November 19, 2002 at 02:50 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 
2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 
2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 9, 2002)]
Recent activity
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 18. Solar wind speed 
ranged between 354 and 388 km/sec.
Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 178.9, the planetary A index was 
12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 12.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 32323333 (planetary), 32322233 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not 
yet been numbered. A total of 12 C and 1 M class events were recorded during the 
day.
Region 10191 decayed and lost penumbral area in all parts of the region. The 
magnetic delta structure disappeared. M class flares are still possible. Flare: 
C4.5 at 00:24 UTC.
Region 10192 rotated partly out of view at the northwest limb. There is a 
possibility of an M class event today. Flares: C2.2/1F at 07:11, C2.2 at 16:17 
and C6.3 at 16:57 UTC
Region 10195 decayed in the northern trailing penumbra but, however, the leading 
penumbra increased its size and became asymmetrical.
Region 10197 gained several trailing spots during the day. All of these spots 
disappeared by midnight leaving only the large leading penumbra.
Region 10198 developed slowly and now has a magnetic delta structure in the 
leading penumbra. Further M class flares are possible. Flare: Impulsive major 
M7.4/1F at 02:08 UTC.
Spotted regions not yet numbered:
[S32] A new bipolar region emerged just northwest of the leading penumbra of 
region 10198 late on November 18. Location at midnight: S16E33.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
November 17-18: No obviously geoeffective CMEs noted.
Coronal holes
A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 18.

Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 23:29 UTC on November 18 . The black areas on the 
solar disk are coronal holes.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 19-20 and 
unsettled to minor storm on November 21-22 due to a recurrent coronal stream. 
Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high 
and upper middle latitudes is fair.
      Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)


1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)

This is a composite image based on a SOHO/MDI image and overlaid by a coronal 
hole image. Region numbering has been included.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary 
provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots 
observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC 
or where SEC has observed no spots.
      Solar regionDate numberedSEC
      spot
      countSTAR
      spot
      countLocation at midnightAreaClassificationComment
      101912002.11.082831S18W550540FACbeta-gamma 
      101922002.11.1187N12W860280DAO  
      101932002.11.12  S02W58  plage 
      101942002.11.13  S17W25  plage 
      101952002.11.131110S17E150290ESOclassification was
      EAO at midnight 
      101972002.11.1411N24E200320HHX  
      101982002.11.152128S18E430640FKIbeta-gamma-delta 
      S32emerged on
      2002.11.18 2S16E330030DRO  
      Total spot count:6979
      SSN:119139

Monthly solar cycle data
      MonthAverage solar
      flux at EarthInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot number
      2000.04184.2125.5120.8
      cycle 23 sunspot max. 
      2000.07202.3170.1119.8
      2001.10207.6125.5114.0 (-0.1)
      2001.11210.6106.5115.5 (+1.5)
      2001.12235.1132.2114.6 (-0.9)
      2002.01226.6114.1113.5 (-1.1)
      2002.02205.0107.4114.7 (+1.2)
      2002.03179.598.4113.4 (-1.3)
      2002.04189.8120.7110.5 (-2.9)
      2002.05178.4120.8(109.0 predicted, -1-5)
      2002.06148.788.3(107.0 predicted, -2.0)
      2002.07173.599.9(103.6 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.08183.6116.4(100.2 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.09175.8109.3(96.4 predicted, -4.8)
      2002.10167.097.5(92.3 predicted, -4.1)
      2002.11182.7 (1)113.2 (2)(87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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