Solar Terrestrial Activity ReportSolar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update November 18, 2002 at 03:30 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 
2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 
2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 9, 2002)]
Recent activity
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 17. Solar wind speed 
ranged between 366 and 547 km/sec, generally decreasing all day. A weak solar 
wind shock was observed at ACE near 23h UTC on October 16. The interplanetary 
magnetic field was northwards most of the day, however, a gradual southwards 
swing was observed towards the end of the day.
Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 184.7, the planetary A index 
was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 8.6).
Three hour interval K indices: 32113322 (planetary), 32111311 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At midnight there were 5 spotted regions on the visible disk. A total of 9 C and 
1 M class events were recorded during the day. At 02:08 UTC on November 18 
region 10198 produced an impulsive major M7.4 flare.
Region 10191 decayed slightly losing some trailing spots. There is still a 
magnetic delta structure in a trailing penumbra. Major flares are possible.
Region 10192 lost some penumbral area but developed a few new spots. An M class 
flare is possible today and tomorrow while the region is rotating around the 
northwest limb. Flare: C2.2 at 01:05 UTC
Region 10194 decayed and was spotless by noon.
Region 10195 was mostly unchanged and quiet.
Region 10197 was quiet and stable. The large penumbra became asymmetrical at its 
northern edge and a new spot could be forming there.
Region 10198 developed slowly and is capable of producing further M class 
flares. A magnetic delta structure could be forming at the trailing end of the 
leading penumbra. Flares: M2.0 at 14:54 and C7.9 at 21:37 UTC.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
November 16: A fast full halo CME was observed during the morning with most of 
the ejected material seen off the southern hemisphere limbs. The origin of this 
CME is uncertain and may have been backsided.
Coronal holes
A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on 
November 18.

Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 13 (the next image will 
probably be produced on Nov.19 when new EIT 284 are available) . The black areas 
on the solar disk are coronal holes.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 18-20. 
Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high 
and upper middle latitudes is fair.
      Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)


1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)

Lacking recent SOHO EIT images due to a CCD bakeout, the test composite image 
has been temporarily replaced by a SOHO/MDI image where only region numbers have 
been added.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary 
provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots 
observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC 
or where SEC has observed no spots.
      Solar regionDate numberedSEC
      spot
      countSTAR
      spot
      countLocation at midnightAreaClassificationComment
      101892002.11.06  N17W86  plage 
      101902002.11.07  S22W81  plage 
      101912002.11.084135S18W410580FKIbeta-gamma-delta 
      101922002.11.111518N12W740550EHO  
      101932002.11.12  S02W45  plage 
      101942002.11.133 S17W120020CSOnow spotless 
      101952002.11.13814S17E280340EHO  
      101962002.11.14  S18W83  plage 
      101972002.11.1412N24E330280HHX  
      101982002.11.151116S18E550590FKO  
      Total spot count:7985
      SSN:139135

Monthly solar cycle data
      MonthAverage solar
      flux at EarthInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot number
      2000.04184.2125.5120.8
      cycle 23 sunspot max. 
      2000.07202.3170.1119.8
      2001.10207.6125.5114.0 (-0.1)
      2001.11210.6106.5115.5 (+1.5)
      2001.12235.1132.2114.6 (-0.9)
      2002.01226.6114.1113.5 (-1.1)
      2002.02205.0107.4114.7 (+1.2)
      2002.03179.598.4113.4 (-1.3)
      2002.04189.8120.7110.5 (-2.9)
      2002.05178.4120.8(109.0 predicted, -1-5)
      2002.06148.788.3(107.0 predicted, -2.0)
      2002.07173.599.9(103.6 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.08183.6116.4(100.2 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.09175.8109.3(96.4 predicted, -4.8)
      2002.10167.097.5(92.3 predicted, -4.1)
      2002.11183.1 (1)109.3 (2)(87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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