Solar Terrestrial Activity ReportSolar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update November 14, 2002 at 03:40 UTC. Minor update posted at 07:20 UTC. 
The next update will be published late on November 17 due to the yearly DXLC 
board meeting this weekend.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 
2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 
2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 9, 2002)]
Recent activity
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 13. Solar wind speed 
ranged between 476 and 674 km/sec, peaking near 07h UTC.
Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 182.4, the planetary A index 
was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 12.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 43223332 (planetary), 33323322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.
At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not 
yet been numbered. A total of 13 C and 1 M class events were recorded during the 
day. An optically unaccounted M1.0 long duration event began at 23:00 UTC and 
peaked on Nov.14 at 00:17 UTC.
Region 10180 rotated out of view at the southwest limb. Flare: C1.9 at 10:06 
UTC.
Region 10182 was quiet and stable and will rotate over the southwest limb late 
today.
Region 10185 decayed and lost about half of its penumbral area. Flare: C3.4 long 
duration event peaking at 05:02 UTC.
Region 10189 decayed and was spotless by midnight.
Region 10190 was quiet and stable
Region 10191 developed further in the leading spot section and in the southern 
part of the trailing spot section. A small magnetic delta structure developed in 
the central trailing spot section. Major flares are possible. Flares: C1.2 at 
02:28, C3.0 at 14:47 and C1.9 at 18:03 UTC.
Region 10192 decayed and was spotless by late afternoon.
Region 10193 decayed slightly and was quiet.
New region 10194 emerged in  the southeast quadrant.
New region 10195 rotated into view at the southeast limb.
Spotted regions not yet numbered:
[S31] A region began to rotate into view at the northeast limb late on Nov.13. 
Location at midnight: N25E86. This is possibly the return of old region 10162.
Comment added at 07:20 UTC on November 14: A couple of changes noted early 
today. New flux has emerged near region 10192 and the region has developed very 
quickly. Incredibly 25 spots were observed just a short time ago. Polarities are 
currently intermixed and the region could soon become capable of producing a 
minor M class flare. The classification at 07h UTC was DAI. A new region has 
emerged quickly in the southwest quadrant just west of region 10190. This is 
currently a DAO region with 7 spots.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
November 12-13: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed.
Coronal holes
A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 
12-13. An extension of the northern polar coronal hole was in a geoeffective 
position on November 13. A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a 
geoeffective position on November 18.

Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 13. The black areas on the 
solar disk are coronal holes.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled most of November 14. 
A coronal stream will likely arrive during the latter half of the day causing an 
increase in geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active with a possibility of 
minor storm intervals on November 15-16. Long distance medium wave (AM) band 
propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor.
      Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)


1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)

The above image is a test composite image displaying the currently spotted 
regions overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering and other image 
processing has been applied by myself. 
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary 
provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots 
observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC 
or where SEC has observed no spots.
      Solar regionDate numberedSEC
      spot
      countSTAR
      spot
      countLocation at midnightAreaClassificationComment
      101792002.11.01  S01W86  plage 
      101802002.11.013 S11W940090DAOrotated out of view 
      101822002.11.0211S18W760050HSX  
      101842002.11.03  S05W80  plage 
      101852002.11.03710S13W560070DAO  
      101872002.11.06  N08W83  plage 
      101882002.11.06  N10W74  plage 
      101892002.11.061 N17W340010HRXnow spotless 
      101902002.11.0711S21W270020HSX  
      101912002.11.086381S18E120800FKCbeta-gamma-delta 
      101922002.11.112 N14W220010AXXnow spotless 
      101932002.11.1211S03E070010HSX  
      101942002.11.1322S16E430010AXX  
      101952002.11.1311S15E780120HAX  
      S29emerged on
      2002.11.08 N15W42  plage 
      S30emerged on
      2002.11.10 S17W32  plage 
      S31visible on
      2002.11.13 1N25E860250HHX  
      Total spot count:8298
      SSN:182178

Monthly solar cycle data
      MonthAverage solar
      flux at EarthInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot number
      2000.04184.2125.5120.8
      cycle 23 sunspot max. 
      2000.07202.3170.1119.8
      2001.10207.6125.5114.0 (-0.1)
      2001.11210.6106.5115.5 (+1.5)
      2001.12235.1132.2114.6 (-0.9)
      2002.01226.6114.1113.5 (-1.1)
      2002.02205.0107.4114.7 (+1.2)
      2002.03179.598.4113.4 (-1.3)
      2002.04189.8120.7110.5 (-2.9)
      2002.05178.4120.8(109.0 predicted, -1-5)
      2002.06148.788.3(107.0 predicted, -2.0)
      2002.07173.599.9(103.6 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.08183.6116.4(100.2 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.09175.8109.3(96.4 predicted, -4.8)
      2002.10167.097.5(92.3 predicted, -4.1)
      2002.11180.5 (1)85.7 (2)(87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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