Solar Terrestrial Activity ReportSolar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update November 11, 2002 at 04:20 UTC. Minor update posted at 12:15 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 
2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 
2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 9, 2002)]
Recent activity
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 10. Solar wind speed 
ranged between 346 and 416 km/sec. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly 
strongly northwards. A sustained moderate southward swing early in the day 
caused active to minor storm conditions. After 13h UTC solar wind speed began to 
increase slowly and late in the day it was obvious that a coronal stream was the 
main influence on the s0lar wind.
Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 191.4, the planetary A index 
was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 15.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 34523322 (planetary), 35522222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
The current proton event is decreasing towards event threshold levels and will 
likely end today.
At midnight there were 10 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has 
not yet been numbered. A total of 21 C and 1 M class events were recorded during 
the day. Old region 10175 behind the northwest limb was very active all day and 
produced many C flares: C5.4 at 01:24, C5.5 at 01:33, C7.7 at 02:13, C8.5 at 
02:17, C2.3 at 05:33, C4.5 at 13:46, C2.6 at 16:05, C1.9 at 18:04 and C2.1 at 
18:56 UTC.
Region 10176 was quiet and stable and will rotate over the northwest limb today.
Region 10177 decayed further and will rotate over the northwest limb today.
Region 10180 decayed significantly in the intermediate spot section and lost the 
magnetic delta structure in that part of the region. There is still a magnetic 
delta structure in the leading penumbra, however, this delta has weakened 
considerably over the last couple of days. There is still a chance of a major 
flare. Flares: M2.4/2N at 03:21 (associated with a strong type II radio sweep 
and a CME), C3.9 at 11:52 and C5.4 at 12:15 UTC.
Region 10182 was quiet and stable.
Region 10185 developed slowly early in the day, then began to decay and had lost 
many spots and some penumbral area by the end of the day.
Region 10188 decayed further and could soon become spotless.
Region 10189 decayed quickly during the latter half of the day and could become 
spotless today.
Region 10190 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Flare: C1.6 at 19:58 UTC.
Region 10191 developed quickly in the leading spot section. There appears to be 
two magnetic delta structures, one in a leading penumbra and another one in the 
largest trailing penumbra. A major flare is possible. Flares: C5.9 long duration 
event peaking at 09:28 (and associated with a CME), C5.1 at 11:36, C3.4 at 15:05 
and C3.3 at 16:55 UTC.
Spotted regions not yet numbered:
[S30] A new region emerged in the southeast quadrant on November 10. Location at 
midnight: S17E07.
Comment added at 12:15 UTC on November 11: Some changes observed during the 
first half of the day: A new region emerged in the northeast quadrant, this 
region is currently a DSO group located at N13E14. Regions S30 and 10189 have 
decayed and are currently spotless. Some growth has been observed in the 
trailing spot section of region 10180. This region produced an M2.9 flare at 
07:33 UTC.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the first half of the day. 
The main part of the coronal stream has just arrived at ACE and solar wind 
speeds near 600 km/sec have been observed. The interplanetary magnetic field 
swung strongly southwards and this should result in a significant increase in 
geomagnetic activity.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
November 8: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed.
November 9: A full halo CME was observed after the M4 proton event in region 
10180. The CME was well defined over the southern hemisphere limbs and fairly 
weak over the north pole and the northern part of the northeast limb. The CME 
will likely impact Earth sometime between 18h UTC on November 11 and noon on 
November 12 and could cause unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions.
November 10: A CME mainly off the southwest limb was observed after the M2 event 
in region 10180 early in the day. A CME was observed off the east limb during 
the morning following a long duration C5 event in region 10191. None of the CMEs 
are thought to have had geoeffective extensions.
Coronal holes
The southernmost extension of the northern polar coronal hole was in a 
geoeffective position on November 7. A trans equatorial coronal hole will likely 
be in a geoeffective position on November 12-13.

Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 11. The black areas on the 
solar disk  are coronal holes.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on November 11-12 
and quiet to active on November 13. Long distance medium wave (AM) band 
propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor 
to very poor.
      Coronal holes (1)Coronal mass ejections (2)M and X class flares (3)


1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions (Recent map)

The above image is a test composite image displaying the currently spotted 
regions overlaid by a coronal hole image. The basis for the region image is a 
SOHO/MDI image late on November 10. Region numbering and other image processing 
has been applied by myself. 
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary 
provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots 
observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC 
or where SEC has observed no spots.
      Solar regionDate numberedSEC
      spot
      countSTAR
      spot
      countLocation at midnightAreaClassificationComment
      101762002.10.2911N09W810110HSX  
      101772002.10.3064N17W760100DAOclassification was
      CSO at midnight  
      101792002.11.01  S01W47  plage 
      101802002.11.013733S11W550460FKIbeta-gamma-delta 
      101812002.11.02  S07W60  plage 
      101822002.11.0211S19W370050HSX  
      101842002.11.03  S05W41  plage 
      101852002.11.032519S13W160160DAIclassification was
      CAO at midnight 
      101862002.11.05  N20W63  plage 
      101872002.11.06  N08W44  plage 
      101882002.11.06101N10W340030DSOonly a HRX group
      at midnight 
      101892002.11.0642N12E090030CSO classification was
      BXO at midnight,
      area 0010 then 
      101902002.11.0761S20E140030CSOclassification was
      HSX at midnight 
      101912002.11.083563S18E510590EKCbeta-gamma-delta 
      S25emerged on
      2002.11.05  N15W46  plage 
      S29emerged on
      2002.11.08 N15W01  plage 
      S30emerged on
      2002.11.10 2S17E070010BXO
      Total spot count:125127
      SSN:215227

Monthly solar cycle data
      MonthAverage solar
      flux at EarthInternational sunspot numberSmoothed sunspot number
      2000.04184.2125.5120.8
      cycle 23 sunspot max. 
      2000.07202.3170.1119.8
      2001.10207.6125.5114.0 (-0.1)
      2001.11210.6106.5115.5 (+1.5)
      2001.12235.1132.2114.6 (-0.9)
      2002.01226.6114.1113.5 (-1.1)
      2002.02205.0107.4114.7 (+1.2)
      2002.03179.598.4113.4 (-1.3)
      2002.04189.8120.7110.5 (-2.9)
      2002.05178.4120.8(109.0 predicted, -1-5)
      2002.06148.788.3(107.0 predicted, -2.0)
      2002.07173.599.9(103.6 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.08183.6116.4(100.2 predicted, -3.4)
      2002.09175.8109.3(96.4 predicted, -4.8)
      2002.10167.097.5(92.3 predicted, -4.1)
      2002.11180.2 (1)67.9 (2)(87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. 
The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own 
observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar 
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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