Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 5, 2002 at 03:40 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)] [NEW! Archived reports (last update November 1, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was mostly active on November 4 with a single unsettled interval at 18-21h UTC. Solar wind speed ranged between 448 and 547 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 177.4, the planetary A index was 21 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 20.9). Three hour interval K indices: 44444434 (planetary), 44333333 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. At midnight there were 9 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not yet been numbered. A total of 11 C class events were recorded during the day. Region 10175 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10176 was quiet and stable. Region 10177 decayed losing some penumbral area and several trailing spots. Flare: C3.7 at 03:30 UTC. Region 10178 was quiet and stable. Region 10179 decayed slowly and could become spotless today or tomorrow. Region 10180 developed quickly adding many new spots. Development was very quick in the leading spot section where a magnetic delta structure formed in the largest penumbra. A major flare is possible. Flares: C3.7 long duration event peaking at 11:20 (it should be noted that there was an event just behind the northeast limb at the same time), C4.4 at 18:23, C2.1 at 21:58 and C5.4 at 22:43 UTC. Region 10181 decayed further and was spotless by early evening. Region 10182 was quiet and stable. Region 10183 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 10184 decayed into spotless plage early in the day. Region 10185 was mostly unchanged and quiet. There is a bright and magnetically positive plage field in the southeastern section of the region. The region could be capable of producing a minor M class flare. Spotted regions not yet numbered: [S24] A new region emerged in the northeast quadrant east of region 10177 on November 4. Location at midnight: N18E12. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) November 2-4: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed. Coronal holes A large trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on October 31-November 2, see enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image from early November 5 below. The southernmost extension of a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on November 7. [Image] The black areas on the solar disk in the above image are coronal holes. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on November 5 and quiet to unsettled on November 6-7. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. Solar Date SEC STAR Location region numbered spot spot at AreaClassification Comment countcount midnight 10167 2002.10.23 N18W83 plage 10169 2002.10.24 S19W71 plage 10170 2002.10.25 S12W68 plage 10171 2002.10.25 N11W54 plage 10172 2002.10.27 S16W49 plage 10174 2002.10.29 S26W21 plage 10175 2002.10.29 3 3 N15W22 0060 DSO 10176 2002.10.29 2 1 N10W02 0140 CSO classification was HSX at midnight beta-gamma 10177 2002.10.30 14 11 N16E05 0340 DKI may actually be two separate regions classification was 10178 2002.10.31 1 2 N02W37 0120 HAX CAO at midnight location was N02W71 10179 2002.11.01 2 2 N02E30 0010 BXO classification was HSX at midnight 10180 2002.11.01 24 34 S10E30 0400 EKI beta-gamma-delta actually spotless, 10181 2002.11.02 11 S07E18 0080 DSO did SEC get confused by the development in region 10180? 10182 2002.11.02 2 3 S17E43 0110 DSO 10183 2002.11.03 2 N19W37 0020 BXO now spotless 10184 2002.11.03 S06E38 plage 10185 2002.11.03 5 7 S12E64 0260 CKO S10 emerged on N08W83 plage 2002.10.26 S13 emerged on S22W69 plage 2002.10.27 S20 emerged on N15W14 plage 2002.10.31 S24 emerged on 6 N18E12 0030 DAO 2002.11.04 Total spot count: 66 69 SSN: 166 159 Monthly solar data Average Month solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux at number number Earth 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.7 110.5 (-2.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (108.2 predicted, -2.3) 2002.06 148.7 88.3 (104.5 predicted, -3.7) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (99.6 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (95.6 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (91.8 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 167.0 97.5 (87.7 predicted, -4.1) 2002.11 168.4 (1) 24.3 (2) (82.4 predicted, -5.3) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]