Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 4, 2002 at 03:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)] [NEW! Archived reports (last update November 1, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was mostly active on November 3 with a single unsettled interval at 18-21h UTC. Several stations reported minor storm intervals. Solar wind speed ranged between 447 and 531 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 169.2, the planetary A index was 27 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 28.4). Three hour interval K indices: 44444434 (planetary), 34434533 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. At midnight there were 12 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not yet been numbered. A total of 6 C and 1 M class events were recorded during the day, including an optically uncorrelated C1.0 event at 23:10 UTC. Region 10167 decayed and was spotless by midnight. Region 10174 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 10175 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10176 was quiet and stable. Region 10177 developed slowly with the leading penumbra increasing in area and additional spots emerging in the southeastern section. Another minor M class flare is possible. This region may actually consist of two bipolar regions. Currently the polarity areas of these two regions are unconnected with the trailing southeastern polarity areas having a generally east-west inversion line and the northern polarity areas a north-south neutral line. Flares: C6.3 at 06:10, C2.4 at 09:57 and an M1.3 long duration event peaking at 14:03 UTC. The C6 and M1 events occurred in the southeastern spot section. Region 10178 decayed significantly losing nearly all trailing spots. Region 10179 was quiet and stable. Region 10180 developed quickly adding many new spots. The chance of M class flares has increased significantly and this region should be watched over the next days. Flares: C1.7 at 17:59 and C1.2 at 19:25 UTC. Region 10181 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10182 was quiet and stable. New region 10183 emerged late on Nov.2 in the northwest quadrant and developed slowly early in the day. Decay was observed during the latter half of the day and the region could soon become spotless. New region 10184 rotated into view early on Nov.2 and was numbered on Nov.3. The region was quiet and stable. New region 10185 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Fairly strong emissions can be observed at the southeast limb and there may be another region trailing this one. Spotted regions not yet numbered: [S20] A new region emerged in the northeast quadrant due east of region 10175 on October 31. The region has since been quiet and stable. Location at midnight: N15E12. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) November 1-3: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed. Coronal holes A large trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on October 31-November 2, see enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image from early November 4 below. The southernmost extension of a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on November 7. [Image] The black areas on the solar disk in the above image are coronal holes. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on November 4, quiet to active on November 5 and quiet to unsettled on November 6-7. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. Solar Date SEC STAR Location region numbered spot spot at AreaClassification Comment countcount midnight 10167 2002.10.23 1 N18W70 0010 AXX now spotless 10169 2002.10.24 S19W58 plage 10170 2002.10.25 S12W55 plage 10171 2002.10.25 N11W41 plage 10172 2002.10.27 S16W36 plage 10174 2002.10.29 4 S26W08 0020 BXO now spotless SEC has included 10175 2002.10.29 16 5 N15W09 0110 EAO region S21 in this region. Classification was DSO at midnight 10176 2002.10.29 3 2 N10E11 0110 CSO beta-gamma 10177 2002.10.30 23 14 N16E18 0360 DKI may actually be two separate regions 10178 2002.10.31 7 4 N02W58 0110 DAO classification was CAO at midnight 10179 2002.11.01 1 1 N02E43 0020 HSX 10180 2002.11.01 12 18 S10E43 0150 DAO beta-gamma classification was 10181 2002.11.02 9 2 S07E31 0040 DSO CRO at midnight, area was 0020 then 10182 2002.11.02 3 2 S17E56 0130 DSO 10183 2002.11.03 3 2 N19W24 0010 BXO formerly region S23 10184 2002.11.03 1 1 S06E51 0010 AXX formerly region S22 10185 2002.11.03 4 3 S12E77 0200 HSX S10 emerged on N08W70 plage 2002.10.26 S13 emerged on S22W56 plage 2002.10.27 S20 emerged on 3 N15W01 0020 BXO 2002.10.31 Total spot count: 87 57 SSN: 217 177 Monthly solar data Average Month solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux at number number Earth 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.7 110.5 (-2.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (108.2 predicted, -2.3) 2002.06 148.7 88.3 (104.5 predicted, -3.7) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (99.6 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (95.6 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (91.8 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 167.0 97.5 (87.7 predicted, -4.1) 2002.11 165.3 (1) 18.8 (2) (82.4 predicted, -5.3) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]