Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 2, 2002 at 03:45 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)] [NEW! Archived reports (last update November 1, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 379 and 460 km/sec, decreasing slowly from midnight until approximately 19h UTC, then increasing slowly for the remainder of the day. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 162.2, the planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 10.0). Three hour interval K indices: 23233332 (planetary), 12222312 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. At midnight there were 11 spotted regions on the visible disk, 2 of which have not yet been numbered. A total of 8 C class events were recorded during the day. The above 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced above background levels all day. Region 10165 rotated over the northwest limb late in the day. Region 10167 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10169 was spotless all day in all available images. Region 10171 decayed and will soon become spotless if the current rate of decay persists. Region 10174 decayed losing several spots and most of the penumbral area. This region is heading for spotlessness within a couple of days unless new flux emerges. Region 10175 was mostly unchanged and could produce a minor M class flare. Flares: C3.5 at 01:32, C2.6 at 02:15, C1.7 at 08:21 and C7.1 at 10:39 UTC. Region 10176 was quiet and stable. Region 10177 developed slowly with the leading penumbra increasing in area. Minor decay was observed in some of the southern trailing spots. A minor M class flare is possible. Flare: C1.8 at 16:25 UTC. Region 10178 developed slowly in the leading spot section while decay was observed in the southern trailing spots. The region was mostly quiet. New region 10179 rotated into view at the northeast limb on October 31 and was numbered on November 1. The region was quiet and stable. New region 10180 rotated partly into view at the southeast limb on October 31 and was numbered on Nov.1. Slow development was observed during the day. The region was quiet but may be capable of producing occasional major flares. Spotted regions not yet numbered: [S20] A new region emerged in the northeast quadrant due east of region 10175 on October 31. Slow development was observed on November 1. Location at midnight: N15E25. [S21] A new region rotated into view at the southeast limb. Location at midnight: S17E80. Two additional spotted regions have become visible during the first hours of November 2: A small HRX region has rotated into view at the southeast limb. Location at 02h UTC was S03E78. A new region has emerged in the northeast quadrant at N25E26, so far only with a single AXX spot. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) October 30-November 1: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed. Coronal holes A large trans equatorial coronal hole will be in a geoeffective position on October 31-November 2, see enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image from November 1 below. [Image] Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on November 2, unsettled to major storm on November 3 and unsettled to minor storm on November 4 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. Solar Date SEC STAR Location region numbered spot spot at AreaClassification Comment countcount midnight 10165 2002.10.20 1 N19W87 0080 HAX rotated out of view 10167 2002.10.23 2 1 N17W42 0020 HSX 10169 2002.10.24 2 S19W32 0010 AXX spotless all day 10170 2002.10.25 S12W29 plage 10171 2002.10.25 1 2 N10W14 0020 HSX 10172 2002.10.27 S16W10 plage 10174 2002.10.29 8 6 S26E18 0040 DAO beta-gamma SEC has included region S21 in this 10175 2002.10.29 15 12 N15E18 0160 EAO region. Position was N15E16 at midnight, classification was DAO 10176 2002.10.29 2 2 N10E27 0120 HSX classification was CSO at midnight 10177 2002.10.30 15 17 N15E43 0310 DKI beta-gamma 10178 2002.10.31 10 12 N01W30 0070 DAO formerly region S18, 10179 2002.11.01 2 1 N02E72 0030 CSO only an HSX spot observed all day formerly region S19, 10180 2002.11.01 1 7 S11E70 0090 HSX classification was DAO at midnight S10 emerged on N08W44 plage 2002.10.26 S13 emerged on S22W30 plage 2002.10.27 S20 emerged on 2 N15E25 0020 DRO 2002.10.31 S21 visible on 1 S17E80 0060 HSX 2002.11.01 Total spot count: 59 63 SSN: 169 173 Monthly solar data Average Month solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux at number number Earth 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.7 110.5 (-2.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (108.2 predicted, -2.3) 2002.06 148.7 88.3 (104.5 predicted, -3.7) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (99.6 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (95.6 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (91.8 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 167.0 97.5 (87.7 predicted, -4.1) 2002.11 162.2 (1) 5.6 (2) (82.4 predicted, -5.3) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]