Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 1, 2002 at 03:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)] [NEW! Archived reports (last update November 1, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on October 31. Solar wind speed ranged between 405 and 507 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 170.2, the planetary A index was 18 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 19.0). Three hour interval K indices: 43334433 (planetary), 3433433 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. At midnight there were 10 spotted regions on the visible disk, 2 of which have not yet been numbered. A total of 10 C, 2 M and 1 X class events were recorded during the day. The above 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced above background levels most of the day. Region 10162 rotated out of view at the northwest limb. Flares: C5.7 at 02:17, C2.1 at 04:33, C1.7 at 14:44, M1.2 at 17:21 (this event began at the same time as the X1 flare described below in region S18) and a C8.0 long duration event peaking at 18:33 UTC. Region 10165 was quiet and stable and will rotate out of view at the northwest limb late today. Region 10167 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 10169 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 10170 decayed and was spotless after noon. Region 10171 lost some penumbral area and was quiet. Region 10172 decayed into spotless plage. Region 10174 developed adding several new spots. Polarities are currently mixed. Region 10175 developed slowly and could produce another minor M class flare. Flares: M1.1 at 09:26 and C2.6 at 23:27 UTC. Region 10176 added some penumbral area and was quiet. Region 10177 developed moderately quickly and is capable of producing minor M class flares. New region 10178 emerged on October 30 and was numbered on Oct.31. The region developed quickly early in the day. Spotted regions not yet numbered: [S18] A very interesting region is rotating into view at the east limb. The center of the region appears to be just south of the equator. This region is the likely source of all the backside halo CMEs observed October 24-27. Location at midnight: S04E86. Flares: X1.2 at 16:52 UTC. This flare had a very impulsive character, unlike the longer duration M1.1 event which began in region 10162 at the same time. The latter event was brighter in EIT images causing several observers, including myself, initially to regard the event in region 10162 as the source of the X1 flare. [S19] A new region rotated into view at the northeast limb late in the day. Location at midnight: N06E84. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) October 29-31: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed. Coronal holes A large trans equatorial coronal hole will be in a geoeffective position on October 31-November 2. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 1-2, quiet to major storm on November 3 and unsettled to minor storm on November 4 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. Solar Date SEC STAR Location region numbered spot spot at AreaClassification Comment countcount midnight 10162 2002.10.17 2 N26W88 0200 HAX rotated out of view 10165 2002.10.20 1 1 N19W74 0080 HSX 10167 2002.10.23 2 2 N16W30 0030 CSO classification HSX at midnight 10169 2002.10.24 3 S19W20 0030 DSO now spotless 10170 2002.10.25 S12W16 plage 10171 2002.10.25 1 1 N10W01 0040 HSX 10172 2002.10.27 S16E03 plage beta-gamma 10174 2002.10.29 6 8 S25E32 0060 CSO classification DAO at midnight 10175 2002.10.29 6 13 N16E29 0170 DSO classification ESO at midnight 10176 2002.10.29 1 2 N11E50 0110 HSX 10177 2002.10.30 8 15 N16E57 0160 DAO 10178 2002.10.31 4 9 N00W15 0040 DAO beta-gamma formerly region S17 S10 emerged on N08W31 plage 2002.10.26 S12 emerged on S12W82 plage 2002.10.27 S13 emerged on S22W17 plage 2002.10.27 S18 visible on 1 S04E86 0130 HAX 2002.10.31 S19 visible on 1 N06E84 0040 HSX 2002.10.31 Total spot count: 34 53 SSN: 134 153 Monthly solar data Average Month solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux at number number Earth 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.7 (109.7 predicted, -3.7) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (105.9 predicted, -3.8) 2002.06 148.7 88.3 (101.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (96.5 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (92.5 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (88.7 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 167.0 (1) 153.9 (2) (84.6 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]