Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update October 31, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on October 30. Solar wind speed ranged between 402 and 554 km/sec. Solar wind speed increased during the first few hours of the day as a coronal stream originating from a small coronal hole began to dominate the solar wind. From approximately 06h UTC and for the remainder of the day solar wind speed decreased slowly. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 167.7, the planetary A index was 19 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 19.6). Three hour interval K indices: 23543333 (planetary), 33542232 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. At midnight there were 13 spotted regions on the visible disk, 2 of which have not yet been numbered. A total of 19 C class events were recorded during the day. Region 10162 began to rotate over the northwest limb and the huge leading penumbra rotated out of view. Penumbral area increased in the trailing spot section which contains a strong magnetic delta structure. A major flare is possible today and tomorrow while the region is rotating over the northwest limb. Flares: C3.7 at 01:22, C3.6/1F at 02:51, C6.0/1F at 04:07, C1.6 at 09:43, C5.5 at 16:38, C5.2 at 17:18, C5.4 at 17:34 and C2.8 at 19:25 UTC. Region 10165 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Region 10167 was unchanged and mostly quiet. Flare: C1.9 at 03:41 UTC. Region 10169 appears to be two separate regions. The northern spot section decayed and could become spotless today. Details for the southern spot section can be seen below in region S13. Region 10170 was quiet and stable, the region could become spotless today. Region 10171 was quiet and stable. Region 10172 decayed slowly and could become spotless today. Region 10173 rotated out of view at the southwest limb. Region 10174 was generally unchanged and quiet. Region 10175 developed moderately quickly and may be capable of producing a minor M class flare. Region 10176 did not change much but appears to be somewhat unstable. Flare: C2.2 at 06:43 UTC. New region 10177 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flare: C1.9 at 06:34 UTC. Spotted regions not yet numbered: [S13] A new region emerged just south of region 10169 on October 27 and developed slowly on October 28. Significant decay was observed on October 29 and the region was nearly spotless early on October 30. A couple of spots developed but decayed again towards the evening. The region could soon become spotless. Location at midnight: S22W04. [S17] A new region emerged near the center of the visible disk on October 31. Location at midnight: N03W03. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) October 28-30: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed. Coronal holes A large trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on October 31-November 2. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 31 and quiet to unsettled on November 1-2. A coronal stream is expected to begin on November 3 and will likely cause unsettled to major storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. Solar Date SEC STAR Location region numbered spot spot at AreaClassification Comment countcount midnight beta-delta 10162 2002.10.17 20 13 N25W84 0680 FKI classification DKC at midnight, position was N26W77 then 10164 2002.10.20 N11W78 plage 10165 2002.10.20 5 3 N20W60 0100 CAO classification HSX at midnight 10166 2002.10.23 S06W83 plage 10167 2002.10.23 4 2 N16W17 0050 CSO classification HSX at midnight location at midnight: S18W06, classification 10169 2002.10.24 7 4 S20W05 0060 DSO HRX then, area 0020. the southern spot section is region S13 10170 2002.10.25 4 1 S12W03 0010 CSO classification AXX at midnight, area 0000 10171 2002.10.25 2 4 N11E12 0070 HAX 10172 2002.10.27 1 1 S16E16 0020 HRX classification AXX at midnight, area 0000 10173 2002.10.28 2 S15W92 0030 DAO rotated out of view 10174 2002.10.29 5 4 S24E42 0080 CSO classification DSO at midnight 10175 2002.10.29 10 12 N16E44 0120 DAO area near 0200 at midnight 10176 2002.10.29 1 1 N12E64 0130 HAX formerly region S16 10177 2002.10.30 1 5 N16E69 0060 HSX classification CSO at midnight S10 emerged on N08W18 plage 2002.10.26 S12 emerged on S12W69 plage 2002.10.27 S13 emerged on 2 S22W04 0010 BXO reversed polarity 2002.10.27 S17 emerged on 1 N03W03 0010 HRX 2002.10.30 Total spot count: 62 53 SSN: 182 183 Monthly solar data Average Month solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux at number number Earth 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.7 (109.7 predicted, -3.7) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (105.9 predicted, -3.8) 2002.06 148.7 88.3 (101.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (96.5 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (92.5 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (88.7 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 166.9 (1) 149.5 (2) (84.6 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]