Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update October 30, 2002 at 03:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 400 and 608 km/sec, slowly decreasing all day as a high speed coronal stream subsided. An increase in solar wind speed to near 500 km/sec was observed early on Oct.30. The likely source for this increase is a small, well placed coronal hole which was in a geoeffective position on Oct.26-27, please find further details in Coronal holes section below. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 161.6, the planetary A index was 16 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 16.6). Three hour interval K indices: 43343323 (planetary), 33242333 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level. At midnight there were 13 spotted regions on the visible disk, 2 of which have not yet been numbered. A total of 17 C and 1 M class events were recorded during the day. Region 10162 decayed in the trailing spots section after the M1 flare early in the day, then developed slowly again during the latter half of the day. There is a long inversion line and a magnetic delta structure in the trailing spot section. A major flare is possible while the region rotates over the northwest limb today and tomorrow. Flares: M1.1 at 03:20, C1.4 at 12:34, C2.2 at 13:48, C2.2 at 14:24, C9.7 at 16:33, C1.8 at 21:51 and C5.4 at 23:09 UTC. Region 10165 developed slowly with a new spot emerging just south of the dominant penumbra. Region 10167 developed slowly as a trailing spot added penumbra. Region 10169 appears to be two separate regions. The northern spot section did not change much. Details for the southern spot section can be seen below in region S13. Region 10170 decayed slowly and could become spotless today. Region 10171 developed slightly with the single penumbra elongating. Region 10172 decayed slowly and could become spotless today. Region 10173 developed moderately quickly in the leading spot section. The region is rotating over the southwest limb. Flares: C2.9 at 05:52 and C1.6 at 14:48 UTC. New region 10174 emerged on October 28 and was numbered on Oct.29. The region developed slowly. New region 10175 emerged on October 28 and was numbered on Oct.29. The region developed fairly quickly and may be capable of producing minor M class flares. Flares: C8.7 at 15:30, C1.9 at 19:16 and C2.5 at 20:03 UTC. New region 10176 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flare: C4.6 at 04:23 UTC. Spotted regions not yet numbered: [S13] A new region emerged just south of region 10169 on October 27 and developed slowly on October 28. Significant decay was observed on October 29 and the region could soon become spotless. Location at midnight: S22E09. [S16] A new region rotated into view at the northeast limb late on October 29. Location at midnight: N14E83. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) October 27: No CMEs of interest were observed until late in the day. A C4.0 event caused by a filament eruption in the northeast quadrant was associated with a CME off the east limb. The CME was first visible in LASCO C2 images at 22:26 UTC. A full halo CME was visible by midnight, this impressive CME was observed with most of the material over the southeast quadrant and may have the same source (a large region several days behind the southeast limb) as numerous halo CMEs observed October 24-26. October 28-29: No significant CMEs were observed. Coronal holes A small coronal hole near the solar equator was in a geoeffective position on October 26-27 (see image where it is named "Coronal hole 2"). A large trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on October 31-November 1 (see enhanced EIT 284 image from October 30 at 01:05 UTC right next to "Coronal hole 1"). Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 30 and quiet to unsettled on October 31 and November 1. A coronal stream is expected to begin on November 3 and will likely cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. Solar Date SEC STAR Location region numbered spot spot at AreaClassification Comment countcount midnight 10162 2002.10.17 23 31 N26W73 0600 FKI beta-delta 10164 2002.10.20 N11W65 plage 10165 2002.10.20 3 4 N20W47 0100 CAO 10166 2002.10.23 S06W70 plage 10167 2002.10.23 7 6 N17W03 0060 CSO location at midnight: 10169 2002.10.24 9 5 S20E07 0060 DAO S18E07, the southern spot section is region S13 10170 2002.10.25 1 2 S12E10 0010 AXX 10171 2002.10.25 2 1 N11E25 0070 HAX 10172 2002.10.27 1 1 S16E30 0010 AXX 10173 2002.10.28 4 1 S18W82 0100 CSO rotating out of view 10174 2002.10.29 2 4 S25E55 0070 CAO formerly region S14 beta-gamma formerly region S15 10175 2002.10.29 5 9 N15E57 0050 CSO classification was DAO at midnight, area nearly 0100 then 10176 2002.10.29 1 1 N12E75 0090 HSX S10 emerged on N08W05 plage 2002.10.26 S12 emerged on S12W56 plage 2002.10.27 S13 emerged on 3 S22E09 0010 BXO 2002.10.27 S16 visible on 1 N14E83 0030 HSX 2002.10.29 Total spot count: 58 69 SSN: 168 199 Monthly solar data Average Month solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux at number number Earth 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.7 (109.7 predicted, -3.7) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (105.9 predicted, -3.8) 2002.06 148.7 88.3 (101.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (96.5 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (92.5 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (88.7 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 166.8 (1) 143.7 (2) (84.6 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]