Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update October 16, 2002 at 02:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 401 and 614 km/sec, slowly increasing all day under the influence of a high speed coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 176.8, the planetary A index was 15 (S.T.A.R. Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 16.1). Three hour interval K indices: 33243442 (planetary), 23233433 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level. At midnight there were 14 spotted regions on the visible disk, 4 of which has not yet been numbered. A total of 6 C and 1 M class events were recorded during the day. Region 10140 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10144 was quiet and stable. Region 10145 was quiet. Most of the small trailing spots disappeared again. Region 10148 was quiet and stable. Region 10149 decayed in the trailing southeastern spot section and developed slowly in the leading southwestern spot section. A minor M class flare is possible. Flares: C2.2 at 05:17 and M1.0/1F at 14:22 UTC. Region 10154 developed some new small spots near the leading spot. The easternmost trailing spot decreased in size and could soon disappear. Region 10158 was quiet and stable. Region 10159 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 10160 developed moderately quickly during the latter half of the day. Many new spots emerged and polarities are currently intermixed. If the region continues to develop at the current rate, minor M class flares will become possible later today. New region 10161 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Spotted regions which have not yet been numbered: 1. [S01] A new region emerged on October 14 just north of region 10149. The region has since been developing slowly. Location at midnight: N19W07. 2. [S02] A new region emerged in the southeast quadrant west of region 10160. Location at midnight: S21E30. 3. [S03] A new region emerged in the southeast quadrant northeast of region 10158. Location at midnight: S05E41. 4. [S04] A new region emerged in the southeast quadrant just northeast of region 10159. Location at midnight: S08E46. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) October 13: A C4.7 flare in spotless region 10150 was associated with a small CME observed over the southwest limb. An M2.2 long duration event beginning late in the day near region 10159 was associated with a large halo CME. Although most of the ejected material was observed off of the east limb, a faint front all around the disk was noticed in LASCO C3 images. A weak shock is possible on October 16 or 17. October 14: A large full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images in association with a very long duration C4.3 event peaking just after 18h UTC. With an origin a couple of days behind the northeast limb, the CME is unlikely to have been geoeffective. October 15: A large filament/prominence in the southern hemisphere lifted off. Activity began as early as 21:36 UTC on October 14 with the most noticeable activity occurring across the central meridian at latitudes below S25 during early afternoon on October 15. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO images. The main part of the CME is not geoeffective, however, there is a chance that the northern flank could reach Earth on October 18. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 16 due to a coronal stream. A weak solar wind shock is possible on October 16 or 17 but is not likely to increase geomagnetic activity beyond active levels. Another weak shock could be observed on October 18 as a result of a filament eruption on October 15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments and data for regions not yet numbered are my own. Solar Date Spot Location region numbered count at Area Classification Comment midnight 10140 2002.10.04 1 S08W65 0130 HSX 10142 2002.10.05 N05W69 plage 10144 2002.10.07 2 N11W65 0060 CSO 10145 2002.10.08 8 N12W18 0070 CSO 10146 2002.10.09 S09W57 plage 10147 2002.10.09 S03W40 plage 10148 2002.10.09 1 S20W09 0020 HRX spot count includes spots in region S01. The southern and northern spot sections appear to be 2 separate bipolar 10149 2002.10.09 31 N14W07 0450 EAI regions, each without intermixed polarities. At midnight the southern group had 28 spots, the northern had 8. Including the spots of S01 the spot count would be 47. 10150 2002.10.09 S09W71 plage 10151 2002.10.09 S14W28 plage 10152 2002.10.10 N20W81 plage 10153 2002.10.10 S05W18 plage 10154 2002.10.10 10 S12E08 0030 CSO classification ESO at midnight 10156 2002.10.11 N09W43 plage 10157 2002.10.12 N15E07 plage spot count appears to 10158 2002.10.12 3 S08E34 0120 CSO include those of region S03 classification should 10159 2002.10.13 1 S11E44 0160 HSX be HAX, 2 spots observed beta-gamma 18 spots observed 10160 2002.10.14 5 S20E41 0030 CSO at midnight, area 0090 then, classification DAI 10161 2002.10.15 3 N06E00 0020 CRO S01 emerged on (11) N19W07 0060 DAO 2002.10.14 S02 emerged on (3) S21E30 0010 CRO 2002.10.15 S03 emerged on (3) S05E41 0010 CRO 2002.10.15 S04 emerged on (1) S08E46 0000 AXX 2002.10.15 Total number of STAR spot count: 102 in 14 regions, daily spot sunspots: 65 number: 242 Monthly solar data Average Month solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux at number number Earth 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (109.7 predicted, -3.7) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (105.9 predicted, -3.8) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (101.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (96.5 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (92.5 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (88.7 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 164.1 (1) 72.9 (2) (84.6 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]