Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update October 14, 2002 at 03:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 288 and 336 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 179.2, the planetary A index was 10 (S.T.A.R. Ap - based on mean of three hour ap indices: 10.3). Three hour interval K indices: 23333322 (planetary), 12323112 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. At midnight there were 13 spotted regions on the visible disk including 2 not yet numbered regions. A total of 3 C and 1 M class events were recorded during the day. Spotless region 10150 was the origin of a C4.7/1F flare at 17:57 UTC. This event was associated with a strong type II and a weak type IV radio sweep. A possibly geoeffective CME may have been produced as well, however, I haven't been able to confirm that yet. Region 10139 decayed further losing penumbral area, particularly in the southernmost spot section. An isolated M class flare is still possible. Region 10140 was quiet and stable. Region 10144 decayed further and lost all trailing spots. Region 10145 was quiet and stable. Region 10146 was spotless early in the day, then reemerged with a few small spots. Region 10148 was quiet and stable. Region 10149 developed slowly with most of the development observed in the leading southwestern penumbra. Occasional M class flares are possible. Region 10154 was quiet and stable. Region 10156 decayed and was spotless before noon. Region 10157 decayed slowly and could become spotless today or tomorrow. Region 10158 was quiet and stable. New region 10159 rotated into view late on Oct.12 at the southeast limb. The region may be capable of hosting further M class flares. Flare: M2.2 peaking at 00:10 UTC on October 14 and beginning at 23:42 UTC on October 13. This long duration event was associated with a large CME observed mostly over the east limb, however, the CME extended to the south pole and is currently a partial halo CME. Spotted regions not yet numbered: 1. A new region emerged near the southeast limb early in the day, then began to decay slowly. The location at midnight was S23E66. 2. A new region emerged in the northeast quadrant northwest of region 10145 and was located at N16E02 at midnight. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) October 13: A geoeffective CME may have been associated with a C4.7 flare in spotless region 10150. A CME associated with an M2.2 event beginning late in the day in region 10159 could have a geoeffective western flank. In that case the CME will reach Earth on October 16 or 17. Coronal holes An extension of the northern polar coronal hole may have been in a geoeffective position on October 11 and could cause an increase in geomagnetic activity on October 14-15. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active on October 14-16 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) SEC Solar Date number Location region numbered of at Area Classification Comment spots midnight beta-gamma-delta 10139 2002.10.02 12 N08W72 0500 DKO area near 0350 at midnight 10140 2002.10.04 1 S08W39 0200 HSX 10141 2002.10.05 S07W88 plage 10142 2002.10.05 N05W43 plage only 1 spot observed 10144 2002.10.07 4 N11W37 0090 DSO at midnight, classification HSX only 1 spot observed 10145 2002.10.08 3 N12E08 0090 CSO at midnight, classification HSX 10146 2002.10.09 (2) S09W31 0000 AXX spotless early in the day 10147 2002.10.09 S03W14 plage 10148 2002.10.09 2 S20E17 0030 HSX 10149 2002.10.09 24 N16E20 0410 DHI 10150 2002.10.09 S09W45 plage 10151 2002.10.09 S14W02 plage 10152 2002.10.10 N20W55 plage 10153 2002.10.10 S05E08 plage classification DAO at 10154 2002.10.10 5 S11E33 0060 DSO midnight, 9 spots observed then 10155 2002.10.11 S09W79 plage 10156 2002.10.11 1 N09W17 0000 AXX now spotless 10157 2002.10.12 3 N16E34 0010 HSX 10158 2002.10.12 1 S09E62 0120 HSX 10159 2002.10.13 1 S12E73 0080 HSX area near 0130 ? emerged (2) S23E66 0010 AXX 2002.10.13 ? emerged (1) N16E02 0020 HSX 2002.10.13 Total number of sunspots: 57 Monthly solar data Average Month solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux at number number Earth 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (109.7 predicted, -3.7) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (105.9 predicted, -3.8) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (101.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (96.5 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (92.5 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (88.7 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 161.8 (1) 62.0 (2) (84.6 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]