Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update October 13, 2002 at 03:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly active on October 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 312 and 361 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 180.4, the planetary A index was 11 (S.T.A.R. calculated average value based on three hour Ap indices: 11.9). Three hour interval K indices: 23243332 (planetary), 22242311 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. At midnight there were 12 spotted regions on the visible disk including 2 not yet numbered regions. Only 2 C class events were recorded during the day, none of the events were optically correlated. Region 10139 decayed further losing penumbral area and several small spots. An isolated M class flare is still possible. Region 10140 was quiet and stable. Region 10144 decayed further and could soon lose all remaining trailing spots. Region 10145 was quiet and stable. Region 10146 decayed and was spotless by midnight. Region 10148 was quiet and stable. Region 10149 developed slowly adding penumbral area in the southern section. Early on Oct.13 this region is the largest on the visible disk. Region 10154 developed slowly adding a few trailing spots. Region 10155 decayed and was spotless by late evening. Region 10156 decayed and could soon become spotless. New region 10157 emerged on Oct.11, was numbered on Oct.12 and developed slowly that day. New region 10158 rotated into view at the southeast limb early in the day. Spotted regions not yet numbered: 1. A new region emerged on Oct.10 west of region 10149 and was located at N17E25 at midnight. 2. A region began rotating into view at the southeast limb late in the day. This region was located at S12E84 at midnight. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) October 11: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed. Coronal holes An extension of the northern polar coronal hole may have been in a geoeffective position on October 11 and could cause an increase in geomagnetic activity on October 14-15. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 13 and quiet to active on October 14-15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) SEC Solar Date number Location region numbered of at Area Classification Comment spots midnight beta-gamma-delta 10139 2002.10.02 12 N08W59 0640 DKO area near 0400 at midnight 10140 2002.10.04 2 S08W25 0190 HSX 10141 2002.10.05 S07W75 plage 10142 2002.10.05 N05W30 plage 10144 2002.10.07 9 N12W24 0110 DSO 10145 2002.10.08 3 N13E21 0090 CSO 10146 2002.10.09 1 S09W18 0000 AXX now spotless 10147 2002.10.09 S03W01 plage 10148 2002.10.09 1 S20E31 0060 HSX at least 25 spots 10149 2002.10.09 12 N16E34 0400 DAI observed early evening 10150 2002.10.09 S09W45 plage 10151 2002.10.09 S14E11 plage 10152 2002.10.10 N20W42 plage 10153 2002.10.10 S05E21 plage classification DAO at 10154 2002.10.10 3 S12E44 0050 CSO midnight, 8 spots observed then 10155 2002.10.11 4 S09W66 0040 CRO now spotless 10156 2002.10.11 1 N09W05 0000 AXX 10157 2002.10.12 2 N17E49 0010 HRX 7 spots, classification CRO at midnight 10158 2002.10.12 1 S08E80 0090 HSX location S09E72 at midnight ? emerged (1) N17E25 0010 HRX 2002.10.10 ? visible on (1) S12E84 0120 HSX 2002.10.12 Total number of sunspots: 51 Monthly solar data Average Month solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux at number number Earth 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (109.7 predicted, -3.7) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (105.9 predicted, -3.8) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (101.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (96.5 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (92.5 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (88.7 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 160.3 (1) 56.6 (2) (84.6 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]