Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update October 10, 2002 at 03:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update August 16, 2002)] Recent activity The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on October 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 360 and 447 km/sec. The interplanetary magnetic field was moderately southwards most of the day and for the tenth consecutive day geomagnetic activity peaked at or above the minor storm level. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 167.2, the planetary A index was 22 (S.T.A.R. calculated average value based on three hour Ap indices: 23.4). Three hour interval K indices: 24554433 (planetary), 13544332 (Boulder). The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. At midnight there were 13 spotted regions on the visible disk, 3 of which were not yet numbered. Only 2 low level C class events were recorded during the day. Region 10137 rotated quietly out of view at the southwest limb. Region 10139 was mostly unchanged and quiet. The negative polarity spots in the southern part of the main penumbra rotated further anti clockwise around the dominant northern positive polarity spots. There is a chance of M class flares. Region 10140 was mostly quiet and stable. Flare: C1.0 at 06:45 UTC. Region 10141 decayed quickly and was spotless by early evening. Region 10142 was quiet and stable. Region 10143 developed slowly early in the day, then began to decay quickly. At the current rate of decay the region will become spotless today. Region 10144 developed further as new flux emerged in both polarity areas. Region 10145 was quiet and stable. New region 10146 emerged on Oct.8 in the southeast quadrant and developed slowly on Oct.9. New region 10147 emerged in the southeast quadrant. New region 10148 rotated into view at the southeast limb early in the day. New region 10149 rotated into view at the northeast limb late on Oct.8. New region 10150 emerged in the southeast quadrant late on Oct.8. The region decayed on Oct.9 and became spotless. New region 10151 rotated into view at the southeast limb on Oct.7, was numbered on Oct.9 and became spotless the same day. Spotted regions not yet numbered: 1. Several small spots can be observed 4-9 degrees longitude west of region 10140. This region was mostly unchanged over the last day. Please observe that SEC has included these spots in region 10140. 2. A new region emerged in the southeast quadrant and was located at S02E63 at midnight. 3. A region rotated into view at the southeast limb late in the day, the location was S10E79 at midnight. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) October 7-9: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed during the period. A full halo CME was observed beginning at 06:42 UTC on October 9. Most of the material was observed over the north pole and the source of this CME was likely a backside event. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 10 and quiet unsettled on October 11-12. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) SEC Solar Date number Location region numbered of at Area Classification Comment spots midnight 10137 2002.09.29 3 S18W85 0150 DAO 10139 2002.10.02 31 N11W19 0570 DKC beta-gamma-delta location S08E16 at 10140 2002.10.04 10 S09E13 0190 CAO midnight, 5 of the spots belong to a separate region 10141 2002.10.05 4 S07W36 0010 DRO now spotless 10142 2002.10.05 1 N04E09 0020 HSX 10143 2002.10.07 11 S17W60 0060 DRO area 0020 at midnight 10144 2002.10.07 11 N12E17 0110 DAO 10145 2002.10.08 1 N11E62 0090 HAX 10146 2002.10.09 7 S10E25 0050 CAO 10147 2002.10.09 2 S03E39 0010 BXO 10148 2002.10.09 1 S21E70 0050 HAX 10149 2002.10.09 1 N16E72 0140 HAX 10150 2002.10.09 2 S09W05 0010 AXX now spotless 10151 2002.10.09 1 S14E50 0010 AXX now spotless ? emerged (5) S10E09 0010 BXO 2002.10.05 ? emerged (1) S02E63 0020 HSX 2002.10.09 ? visible on (2) S10E79 0050 DAO 2002.10.09 Total number of sunspots: 86 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (109.7 predicted, -3.7) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (105.9 predicted, -3.8) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (101.4 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (96.5 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 183.6 116.4 (92.5 predicted, -4.0) 2002.09 175.8 109.3 (88.7 predicted, -3.8) 2002.10 37.5 (1) 30.2 (2) (84.6 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]