:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Sep 03 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 August - 01 September 2002

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels.   Activity was low on
27, 31 August and 01 September.  Moderate levels were reached on 26,
28 and 29 August.  Activity was at high levels on 30 August due to
an X1/Sn flare at 30/1329 UTC from Region 95 (N07, L= 059 class/area
Fkc/810 on 31 August).  This flare was associated with a Type II
radio sweep and a Tenflare, however, no Earth directed CME was
observed.  Region 95 rotated onto the east limb on 29 August and was
fairly active, producing an M-class flare and numerous C-class
flares (For flare times and magnitudes, refer to the Energetic
Events or Optical Flare lists).   Region 95 has shown some mixing of
polarities in the intermediate spots and developed a small, short
lived, delta magnetic configuration in the trailing spots on 31
August.  At the close of the period, Region 95 was a large group
with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  A CME
shock passage was detected by ACE at 26/1048 UTC marked by a 100
km/s increase in solar wind velocity to near 420 km/s. 
Corresponding increases in solar wind temperature and density were
also observed.   Velocity increased to a peak value around 525 km/s
late on 28 August and gradual decreased on 29-30 August to
approximately 350 km/s.

The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 24/0140 UTC, ended
at 26/1335 UTC (peak flux was 317 pfu).  No other proton events were
observed during the summary period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit was at
normal levels for most of the period.  An enhancement to moderate
levels was observed on 29 August.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels for most of the
period.  Minor storming was observed on 26 August due to the arrival
of a fast CME, associated with the X3/Sf, full halo event on 24
August.  A 15 nT sudden impulse was recorded at the Boulder
Magnetometer at 26/1133 UTC.  The geomagnetic field for the
remainder of the period was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
periods of active conditions on 27 August, 31 August, and 01
September.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 30 September 2002

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.   Activity is
expected to be low early in the period, 04-08 September.  With the
return of old Region 69 (S08, L=299, class/area Ekc/1990, on 19
August) on 07 September and Region 95 on 23 September, low to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

No proton events are expected early in the period.  A proton event is
possible on 07-22 September.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit may
reach event threshold on 08-09 September due to a recurring coronal
hole.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
for most of the period.  Active conditions are possible on 06-07
September due to a recurring coronal hole.


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