:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Aug 13 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 - 11 August 2002

Solar activity was low for most of the period.  Activity reached
moderate levels on 05 August due to a minor M-class flare from
Region 63 (N17, L = 003, class/area Eao/250 on 09 August) and 07
August due to an isolate M-class event from Region 57 (S08, L = 146,
class/area Eac/380 on 04 August).  For flare times and magnitudes,
please refer to the Energetic Events or Optical Flare lists.  Region
57 began the period in a decay phase and continued until it rotated
beyond the western limb on 08 August.  Region 61 (N08, L = 041,
class/area Ekc/360 on 09 August) exhibited steady growth early in
the period and developed a minor magnetic delta configuration in the
intermediate spots on 07-08 August.  The only other events of
interest were a number of disappearing filaments, most notable a 19
degree filament which lifted off at approximately 11/0700 UTC and
was visible in LASCO EIT195 imagery.  Late in the period, a moderate
sized spot group Region 69 (S08, L = 297, class/area Eko/450 on 11
August) rotated onto view and appears to be developing.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period.  Solar
wind velocities decreased during the first half of the period down
to approximately 300 km/s on 08 August.  Wind velocities increased
on 09-10 August to a peak velocity around 450 km/s and on 11 August
a high-speed stream increased solar wind velocity to around 550
km/s.

There were no proton events at geo-synchronous orbit.

Greater than 2 MeV electrons flux at geo-synchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels for most
of the period.  On 09-11 August, periods of active conditions were
observed and the higher latitudes reported periods of minor to major
storming.  An isolated period of minor storm level was observed on
10 August.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 August - 09 September 2002

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.  M-class events are
expected during the first half of the forecast period.   There is a
chance of major flare activity due to the return of old Regions 39,
old Region 44 and presence of Region 69 on the disk early in the
period.

There will be a chance for a proton event during the first half of
the period.

Greater than 2 MeV electrons flux is expected to be moderate on 14-16
August due to coronal hole effects.  Normal to moderate levels are
expected the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled
during most of the forecast period.  Active conditions are possible
on 23 August and 07-08 September due to returning coronal hole
effects.


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