Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 22, 2002 at 04:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update August 16, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to severe storm on August 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 366 and 509 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 219.9, the planetary A index was 41 (3-hour planetary K indices: 5574 5343, Boulder K indices: 4563 5433). Region 10066 was spotless all day in all available images. SEC/NOAA claimed the region had 10 spots. Region 10067 decayed slowly losing several spots. Region 10069 decayed slowly losing some penumbral area in the westernmost part of the huge penumbra. There is still a chance of a major X class proton flare. Region 10076 was spotless all day in all available images. Region 10079 decayed and had lost all trailing spots by the end of the day, slow decay was observed in the leading spots. Region 10080 decayed and lost the spots which had emerged one day earlier. Region 10083 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 10084 developed slowly and quietly. Region 10085 was quiet and stable. Early on August 22 a new region is rotating into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 12 C, 1 M and 1 X class events was recorded on August 21. Region 10069 produced a C3.3 flare at 01:01, an M1.4 flare at 01:41, a major impulsive X1.0/1B flare (associated with a weak type II sweep) at 05:34, a C3.3 flare at 12:48, a C3.1 flare at 13:03, a C3.0 flare at 16:12, a C3.6 flare at 17:02, a C4.8 flare at 17:25, a C8.9 flare at 19:07, a C4.4 flare at 22:40, a C3.5 flare at 23:26 and a C3.1 flare at 23:59 UTC. Region 10083 generated a C3.6 flare at 04:51 UTC. Region 10069 was the source of a major M5.4/2B flare at 01:57 UTC on August 22. A proton event began soon after. Early LASCO C3 images indicate at least a partial halo CME. The flare caused a filament eruption in region 10077 as well. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on August 22-23 and quiet to minor storm on August 24. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight actually spotless, 10066 2002.08.09 10 N15W85 0040 CAO did the observer count the spots in nearby region 10067 twice? 10067 2002.08.10 10 N11W73 0090 DAO 10068 2002.08.10 S10W79 plage 10069 2002.08.11 46 S08W68 1650 EKC beta-gamma-delta this "observation" cannot be supported by 10071 2002.08.11 1 N10W68 0000 AXX any available data, the region has been featureless for at least a week. 10075 2002.08.12 S11W89 plage 10076 2002.08.12 1 N13W42 0010 HSX actually spotless 10077 2002.08.13 S18W43 plage 10079 2002.08.14 22 S22W35 0170 EAO 10080 2002.08.14 11 N15W23 0070 DAO spot count too high 10081 2002.08.16 N18W05 plage 10082 2002.08.17 N20W46 plage 10083 2002.08.17 13 S18E11 0050 DAO beta-gamma 10084 2002.08.18 14 S16E26 0110 CAO 10085 2002.08.19 10 S11E42 0520 CKO Total number of sunspots: 138 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (114.0 predicted, -0.5) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (110.3 predicted, -3.7) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (104.5 predicted, -5.8) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (100.0 predicted, -4.5) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (95.5 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (90.6 predicted, -4.9) 2002.08 184.3 (1) 142.5 (2) (86.6 predicted, -4.0) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]