Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 15, 2002 at 04:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on August 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 413 and 661 km/sec. A new disturbance was observed beginning at ACE at approximately 12:30 UTC, probably caused by another coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 208.1, the planetary A index was 15 (3-hour planetary K indices: 3333 4333, Boulder K indices: 2233 3333). Region 10061 was mostly unchanged but is still somewhat unstable and could produce further flares. Region 10063 was generally unchanged and quiet. Region 10066 lost some trailing spots, however, slow development was observed in other parts of the region. There may be a weak magnetic delta structure in a trailing penumbra. Minor M class flaring is possible. Region 10067 developed quickly in the trailing spot section and could produce further M class flares. Region 10068 was quiet and stable. Region 10069 developed slowly and has a strong magnetic delta as well as a couple of smaller deltas in the trailing penumbrae. The region has one of the largest penumbral areas observed in the current solar cycle. X class flares are possible. Region 10072 did not change much and was quiet. Region 10075 developed slowly and quietly. Region 10076 was quiet and stable. Region 10077 decayed slowly and appears to be spotless early on August 15. New region 10078 emerged near the central meridian in the southern hemisphere on August 13 and has developed slowly. New region 10079 emerged near the southeast limb on Aug.13. New region 10080 rotated fully into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C and 2 M class events was recorded on August 14. Region 10061 was the source of a long duration M2.3 event peaking at 02:12 UTC on August 14. A strong type II radio sweep was recorded and a full halo CME was observed in LASCO images. The CME could reach Earth on August 17 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. A minor proton event was another result of this LDE. Region 10067 produced a C3.4 flare at 01:10, a C7.5 flare at 14:07 and a long duration M1.4/1F event peaking at 18:15 UTC. Region 10066 generated a C2.6 flare at 12:17 UTC. Region 10069 was the origin of a C4.7 flare at 21:40 and a C1.6 flare at 22:22 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 15, quiet to unsettled on August 16 and quiet to minor storm on August 17. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10061 2002.08.03 2 N08W69 0110 HSX 10063 2002.08.06 11 N18W26 0110 ESO 10064 2002.08.07 S20W79 plage 10065 2002.08.08 1 S07W26 0000 AXX 10066 2002.08.09 14 N13E03 0140 DAI beta-gamma 10067 2002.08.10 29 N11E20 0210 EAO 10068 2002.08.10 4 S08E21 0070 EAO 10069 2002.08.11 25 S08E37 1520 EKC beta-gamma-delta 10070 2002.08.11 N08W42 plage 10072 2002.08.11 6 S17W60 0210 DAO 10073 2002.08.12 N16W39 plage 10074 2002.08.12 N24W27 plage 10075 2002.08.12 6 S12E04 0040 DSO 10076 2002.08.12 1 N12E51 0040 HAX 10077 2002.08.13 1 S18E48 0000 AXX 10078 2002.08.14 9 S13W12 0030 DSO 10079 2002.08.14 1 S20E55 0020 HAX 10080 2002.08.14 4 N16E69 0120 EAO Total number of sunspots: 114 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (113.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.7 predicted, -4.4) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.8 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.3 predicted, -4.5) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (89.0 predicted, -4.8) 2002.08 163.8 (1) 84.5 (2) (84.9 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]