Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 14, 2002 at 04:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on August 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 407 and 504 km/sec under the influence of a weakening coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 191.8, the planetary A index was 13 (3-hour planetary K indices: 4433 3232, Boulder K indices: 4433 2212). Region 10058 rotated over the southwest limb. Region 10061 decayed slowly and quietly. Plage intensity around the main penumbra increased significantly towards the end of the day and the region flared early on August 14. Region 10063 developed some new spots. The leading penumbra decreased its areal coverage. Region 10066 developed further and may be capable of minor M class flaring. Region 10067 developed many new trailing spots and is capable of producing minor M class flares. Region 10068 was quiet and stable. Region 10069 developed slowly. The main penumbra appears to be merging with the largest trailing penumbra. This should increase the flare potential even more and isolated X class flares are becoming a possibility. Region 10071 decayed slowly. The only remaining spot is in the same plage area and negative polarity area as the newly emerged trailing spots in region 10067. Region 10071 should be deleted and merged with region 10067. Region 10072 developed significantly and could soon begin to produce minor M class flares. Region 10075 developed slowly and quietly. Region 10076 was quiet and stable. New region 10077 emerged in the southeast quadrant. This is currently an unimpressive region and could become spotless again today or tomorrow. SEC/NOAA failed to number three new regions, one near the southeast limb, another at the northeast limb and yet another near the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. Flares and CMEs A total of 13 C and 1 M class events was recorded on August 13. Region 10066 produced a C4.6 flare at 02:48 UTC. Region 10058 generated a C3.1/1F flare at 04:55 UTC. Region 10067 was the source of a C4.8 flare at 15:10, a C3.1 flare at 20:52 and a C5.0 flare at 22:15 UTC, while region 10069 managed an M1.8/1F flare at 19:04 UTC. Region 10061 appears to have been the source of a long duration M2.3 event peaking at 02:12 UTC on August 14. A type II radio sweep was observed and early LASCO C3 images indicate that at least a partial halo CME was produced. The CME could reach Earth on August 17. An enhancement in proton fluxes was observed as well. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 14-16 and quiet to minor storm on August 17. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10058 2002.08.01 5 S07W89 0060 DAO 10059 2002.08.02 N15W78 plage 10061 2002.08.03 6 N09W55 0080 CAO 10063 2002.08.06 9 N18W14 0180 EAO 10064 2002.08.07 S20W66 plage 10065 2002.08.08 S09W13 plage 10066 2002.08.09 19 N14E16 0070 DAO beta-gamma too few spots, 10067 2002.08.10 12 N11E33 0110 DSO classification should be EAO 10068 2002.08.10 7 S07E34 0110 ESO 10069 2002.08.11 19 S07E50 1210 EKC beta-gamma-delta 10070 2002.08.11 N0829 10071 2002.08.11 1 N10E42 0020 HAX should be merged with region 10067 10072 2002.08.11 9 S18W48 0160 DAO 10073 2002.08.12 N16W26 plage 10074 2002.08.12 N24W14 plage 10075 2002.08.12 5 S10E17 0040 DRO 10076 2002.08.12 1 N12E64 0060 HSX 10077 2002.08.13 1 S18E48 0010 HSX Total number of sunspots: 94 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (113.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.7 predicted, -4.4) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.8 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.3 predicted, -4.5) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (89.0 predicted, -4.8) 2002.08 160.4 (1) 76.3 (2) (84.9 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]