Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 13, 2002 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on August 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 429 and 512 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 183.9, the planetary A index was 15 (3-hour planetary K indices: 3334 3333, Boulder K indices: 2334 3223). Region 10058 was mostly unchanged as it began to rotate over the southwest limb. Region 10061 decayed further and was quiet. Region 10063 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10066 developed many new spots and currently has mixed magnetic polarities. Region 10067 was quiet and unchanged. Region 10068 was quiet and stable. Region 10069 rotated completely into view and is a large region capable of producing major flares. The region was quiet and there is currently only a small magnetic delta structure near the southwestern edge of the largest trailing penumbra. Region 10070 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Region 10071 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10072 developed further and remained quiet. New region 10073 emerged in the northwest quadrant and is already spotless. New region 10074 emerged in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian and is spotless early on August 13. New region 10075 emerged in the southeast quadrant. New region 10076 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events was recorded on August 12. Region 10058 produced a C1.8/1F flare at 04:09 and a C2.7 flare at 08:17 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 13 and quiet to unsettled on August 14-15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10058 2002.08.01 7 S06W75 0120 DAO 10059 2002.08.02 N15W65 plage 10061 2002.08.03 12 N08W41 0120 CAO 10063 2002.08.06 6 N16E00 0130 DAO 10064 2002.08.07 S20W53 plage 10065 2002.08.08 S09E00 plage 10066 2002.08.09 12 N15E30 0030 DRO beta-gamma 10067 2002.08.10 9 N10E44 0090 DSO 10068 2002.08.10 8 S07E47 0100 EAO 10069 2002.08.11 11 S07E65 1170 EKI beta-gamma-delta 10070 2002.08.11 2 N08W16 0010 AXX now spotless 10071 2002.08.11 1 N11E56 0030 HSX 10072 2002.08.11 8 S18W35 0040 DSO 10073 2002.08.12 6 N16W13 0010 BXO now spotless 10074 2002.08.12 2 N24W01 0010 BXO now spotless 10075 2002.08.12 5 S09E32 0010 BXO 10076 2002.08.12 1 N12E75 0060 HSX Total number of sunspots: 90 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (113.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.7 predicted, -4.4) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.8 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.3 predicted, -4.5) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (89.0 predicted, -4.8) 2002.08 157.8 (1) 69.4 (2) (84.9 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]