Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 11, 2002 at 04:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on August 10. Solar wind speed ranged between 388 and 469 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 148.4, the planetary A index was 16 (3-hour planetary K indices: 4522 3333, Boulder K indices: 3432 3233). Region 10058 decayed losing most of the penumbral coverage in the trailing spots. Region 10059 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 10061 decayed slowly and lost a few spots. Region 10063 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10065 was spotless for the second consecutive day all day in all available images. Neither Mt.Wilson nor Learmonth observed any spots. SEC/NOAA claimed there was two spots in the region. Region 10066 developed slowly and quietly. New region 10067 rotated into view at the northeast limb. New region 10068 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events was recorded on August 10, none of the flares were optically associated with any of the numbered regions. The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on August 9-10. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 11 and quiet to active on August 12-13 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10055 2002.07.29 N13W84 plage 10056 2002.07.31 N05W82 plage 10058 2002.08.01 8 S06W48 0080 DSO 10059 2002.08.02 3 N15W39 0030 CSO 10061 2002.08.03 28 N08W15 0290 EHI beta-gamma 10062 2002.08.05 S05W88 plage 10063 2002.08.06 11 N17E26 0220 DAO 10064 2002.08.07 S20W27 plage actually spotless 10065 2002.08.08 2 S09E26 0010 BXO for the second consecutive day! 10066 2002.08.09 6 N13E57 0080 DSO area somewhat exaggerated 10067 2002.08.10 1 N09E71 0070 HAX 10068 2002.08.10 1 S07E71 0090 HAX Total number of sunspots: 60 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (113.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.7 predicted, -4.4) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.8 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.3 predicted, -4.5) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (89.0 predicted, -4.8) 2002.08 153.7 (1) 56.2 (2) (84.9 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]