Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 9, 2002 at 04:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 296 and 358 km/sec. A slow increase in wind speed was noted during the latter half of the day. The interplanetary magnetic field swung increasingly stronger southwards at times and increased the geomagnetic disturbance levels. The source of the disturbance could be a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 134.6, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour planetary K indices: 2312 3333, Boulder K indices: 1211 2223). Region 10051 rotated quietly over the southwest limb. Region 10055 decayed and was spotless by early afternoon. Region 10057 rotated quietly over the southwest limb. Region 10058 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 10059 decayed further and could become spotless today. Region 10061 developed slowly and could produce occasional M class flares. The region has a weak magnetic delta in the intermediate spot section. Region 10063 was quiet. The region is currently adding new spots near the leading penumbra and may be capable of producing an M class flare. Region 10064 decayed and appeared to be spotless by the end of the day. New region 10065, which had rotated into view on August 7 at the southeast limb, was finally numbered by SEC/NOAA. The region is decaying and appears to be spotless early on August 9. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events was recorded on August 8. Region 10061 produced a C1.4 flare at 11:11 UTC. Region 10057 generated a C1.1 flare at 07:05 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on August 9-10. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 9 and quiet to unsettled on August 10-11. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 10051 2002.07.27 1 S15W91 0070 HSX 10054 2002.07.28 S22W79 plage 10055 2002.07.29 1 N13W58 0010 HRX now spotless 10056 2002.07.31 N05W56 plage 10057 2002.08.01 6 S08W91 0150 DAI 10058 2002.08.01 8 S06W22 0050 DAO 10059 2002.08.02 3 N13W15 0020 CSO 10061 2002.08.03 31 N08E14 0340 DKI beta-delta 10062 2002.08.05 S05W62 plage 10063 2002.08.06 6 N18E51 0220 EAO 10064 2002.08.07 3 S20W02 0020 HSX now spotless? 10065 2002.08.08 1 S10E55 0000 AXX now spotless Total number of sunspots: 60 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (113.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.7 predicted, -4.4) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.8 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.3 predicted, -4.5) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (89.0 predicted, -4.8) 2002.08 156.1 (1) 46.4 (2) (84.9 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]