Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 8, 2002 at 05:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 7, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 304 and 387 km/sec. Other than slowly increasing solar wind density there is so far no indications of the imminent arrival of an expected coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 132.4, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour planetary K indices: 2322 2232, Boulder K indices: 2321 2222). Region 10051 was quiet and stable. Region 10055 decayed and could become spotless today. Region 10057 began to rotate over the southwest limb and may be capable of producing another minor M class flare while at the limb. Region 10058 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 10059 decayed significantly losing all trailing spots. Region 10061 developed further and still has a magnetic delta structure in the central part of the region. M class flares are possible. Region 0063 was quiet and stable. The region may be capable of M class flare production. New region 10064 emerged in the southeast quadrant. SEC/NOAA failed to number a new region which rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C and 1 M class events was recorded on August 7. Region 10057 produced an M1.1 flare at 01:26 UTC. Region 10063 generated a C1.5 flare at 06:36 UTC. Region 10061 was the source of a C1.3 flare at 13:40 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on August 3-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 8 due to a coronal stream and quiet to unsettled on August 9-10. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10051 2002.07.27 1 S16W77 0060 HAX 10054 2002.07.28 S22W66 plage 10055 2002.07.29 2 N12W44 0020 HRX only 1 spot observed, area was 0010 10056 2002.07.31 N05W43 plage 10057 2002.08.01 8 S08W79 0270 EAI beta-gamma 10058 2002.08.01 8 S06W08 0050 DAO 10059 2002.08.02 4 N13E00 0040 CSO 10060 2002.08.03 S27W78 plage 10061 2002.08.03 30 N09E27 0310 DAI beta-gamma-delta 10062 2002.08.05 S05W49 plage 10063 2002.08.06 4 N17E66 0200 EAO 10064 2002.08.07 4 S20E13 0020 CSO Total number of sunspots: 61 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (113.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.7 predicted, -4.4) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.8 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.3 predicted, -4.5) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (89.0 predicted, -4.8) 2002.08 159.2 (1) 41.5 (2) (84.9 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]