Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 6, 2002 at 06:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 381 and 446 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 141.9, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour planetary K indices: 2221 2233, Boulder K indices: 2221 2332). Region 10051 was quiet and stable, as was region 10055. Region 10057 decayed slowly losing some penumbral area in the trailing spot section. A minor M class flare remains a possibility. Region 10058 was quiet and stable. Region 10059 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10060 decayed and became spotless during early morning. Region 10061 developed slowly and quietly. The leading penumbra may have a weak magnetic delta structure near its eastern edge. New region 10062 emerged early in the day in the southwest quadrant. No spots could be observed late in the day. A region at the northeast limb will likely rotate into view today, this region produced an M class flare late in the day and may be capable of further M class flare production. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C and 1 M class events was recorded on August 5. Region 10057 produced a C1.5 flare 03:31 and a C4.8 flare at 05:17 UTC. A region near the northeast limb was the source of an M1.0 flare at 21:22 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on August 3-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, possibly with a few isolated minor storm intervals, on August 6-7 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10048 2002.07.26 N21W77 plage 10051 2002.07.27 1 S15W51 0060 HSX 10052 2002.07.28 N09W89 plage 10053 2002.07.28 S17W80 plage 10054 2002.07.28 S22W40 plage 10055 2002.07.29 5 N14W16 0030 CSO 10056 2002.07.31 N05W17 plage 10057 2002.08.01 31 S07W53 0370 EAI beta-gamma 10058 2002.08.01 1 S06E15 0020 HSX 10059 2002.08.02 10 N15E28 0080 DAO 10060 2002.08.03 4 S27W52 0020 CRO now spotless 10061 2002.08.03 9 N07E53 0190 CAO beta-gamma-delta? 10062 2002.08.05 3 S05W23 0010 CRO Total number of sunspots: 64 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (113.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.7 predicted, -4.4) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.8 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.3 predicted, -4.5) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (89.0 predicted, -4.8) 2002.08 166.7 (1) 32.6 (2) (84.9 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]