Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 3, 2002 at 09:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on August 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 446 and 562 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 180.3, the planetary A index was 37 (3-hour planetary K indices: 6642 3445, Boulder K indices: 4642 3435). Region 10039 decayed quickly and lost about half of its penumbral coverage. At this time only occasional C and minor M class flares are likely. Region 10044 decayed as quickly as region 10039 and simplified. The region is rotating over the southwest limb and could produce C and minor M class flares. Region 10048 was spotless all day in all available images. Region 10050 decayed quickly losing a large amount of its penumbral area. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 10051 was quiet and stable. Region 10054 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 10055 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Region 10056 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 10057 developed slowly and may be capable of producing a minor M class flare. Region 10058 was quiet and stable. New region 10059 rotated into view at the northeast limb on August 1 and was finally numbered by SEC/NOAA. Flares and CMEs A total of 16 C and 1 M class events was recorded on August 2. Region 10055 produced a C2.1 flare at 01:41 UTC. Region 10050 generated a C2.4 flare at 02:07 UTC. REgion 10057 was the source of a C1.7 flare at 03:07, a C2.2 flare at 03:28, a C2.8 flare at 14:36, a C4.4 flare at 19:57 and a C8.3 flare at 23:01 UTC. Region 10044 produced a C4.2 flare at 06:25 and a C3.1 flare at 09:15 UTC. Region 10039 contributed with a C4.2 flare at 06:53, an M1.0 flare at 10:53, a C4.2 flare at 12:47, a C3.6 flare at 13:55, a C2.8 flare at 14:36 (according to SEC/NOAA both regions 10057 and 10039 produced a C2.8 flare at this time. I haven't had the time to check which region actually produced the flare) and a C4.2 flare at 20:18 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere was in a possibly geoeffective position on August 1-2. A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will be in a geoeffective position on August 3-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on August 3 and quiet to unsettled on August 4-5, possibly with a few active intervals due to a coronal stream. Quiet to active is expected for August 6-7 because of another coronal stream, isolated minor storm intervals are possible. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight beta-gamma 10039 2002.07.22 17 S15W70 0480 EAI area way too large, was near 0200 at midnight 10043 2002.07.23 N12W79 plage beta-gamma 10044 2002.07.23 23 S21W76 0780 FKI area much too large, was near 0300 at midnight 10048 2002.07.26 3 N21W38 0020 CRO actually spotless! 10050 2002.07.26 36 S08W59 0570 FKI beta-gamma 10051 2002.07.27 1 S16W12 0090 HSX 10052 2002.07.28 N09W50 plage 10053 2002.07.28 S17W41 plage 10054 2002.07.28 2 S22W01 0010 HRX now spotless 10055 2002.07.29 3 N15E26 0070 DSO 10056 2002.07.31 3 N05E22 0010 BXO now spotless 10057 2002.08.01 17 S08W10 0100 DAO beta-gamma 10058 2002.08.01 1 S07E57 0010 HRX 10059 2002.08.02 4 N14E67 0070 DSO Total number of sunspots: 110 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (113.1 predicted, -0.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (108.7 predicted, -4.4) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (102.8 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (98.3 predicted, -4.5) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (93.8 predicted, -4.5) 2002.07 173.5 99.9 (89.0 predicted, -4.8) 2002.08 186.6 (1) 15.5 (2) (84.9 predicted, -4.1) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]