:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2002 Jul 16 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 - 14 July 2002

Solar activity was at low to high levels. Activity rose to high
levels on 11 July due to an M5/2b flare from Region 30 (N19, L =
013, class/area Fkc/780 on 14 July). Region 30 also produced
isolated low-level M-class flares on 08, 11, and 13 July. All of
these flares were unremarkable in radio aspects. Region 30 grew
steadily in size and magnetic complexity and developed multiple
magnetic delta configurations by the close of the period.
Forecaster's note: Region 30 produced an X3/3b flare and halo CME on
15 July. Details will be provided in next week’s edition.

Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition
Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the summary period. Solar wind
speeds were elevated during 09 – 10 July with peaks to around 530
km/sec, likely due to a negative-polarity coronal hole. Speeds were
also elevated during 12 – 13 July with peaks to around 600 km/sec,
likely due to a positive-polarity coronal hole.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event ended at geo-synchronous orbit at
08/0620 UTC (the event began at 07/1830 UTC following a
long-duration event near the Sun’s southwest limb). There were no
proton events during the rest of the period.

Greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit were at
normal to moderate levels through 11 July, then decreased to normal
levels for the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels during 09
and 12 July, likely due to coronal hole effects. There were also
brief minor storm periods at high latitudes on 12 July. Quiet to
unsettled conditions prevailed during the rest of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 July - 12 August 2002

Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels
during most of the period. Isolated low-level M-class flares are
possible throughout the period. Region may produce additional
isolated major flare activity before it rotates out of view on 23
July.

There is a chance for a proton-producing flare from Region 30 before
it rotates out of view on 23 July.

Greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit are
expected to be at normal to moderate levels for most of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to active to minor
storm levels during 17 – 18 in response to the halo CME observed
late on 15 July. Active periods are possible during 20 July; and
during 02, 05, and 08 August due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the remainder of
the period.


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