Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 14, 2002 at 05:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 417 and 550 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 134.9, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour planetary K indices: 3322 2232, Boulder K indices: 2321 2222). Region 10025 was quiet and stable. Region 10029 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10030 is a very complex region capable of producing major flares. Significant changes were noted during the day. Some decay was observed in the largest leading and trailing penumbrae. Many new spots with penumbra emerged between the large intermediate penumbra (where the magnetic delta structure is) and the trailing spots. Region 10031 reemerged with two small spots but could soon become spotless again. New region 10032 emerged in the southwest quadrant near the central meridian, the region was spotless by midnight. New region 10033 emerged in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian, no spots could be seen towards the end of the day. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C class events was recorded on July 13. Region 10030 produced a C6.7/1F flare at 00:50, a C1.4 flare at 04:11, a C1.7 flare at 05:54, a C1.6 flare at 07:53 and a C2.2 flare at 08:15 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes An extension of the southern polar coronal hole could rotate into a geoeffective position on July 14 and cause a minor geomagnetic disturbance on July 17. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 14-16. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10020 2002.07.02 N00W82 plage 10023 2002.07.03 S22W77 plage 10024 2002.07.03 S35W65 plage 10025 2002.07.04 1 S20W42 0020 HSX 10027 2002.07.07 S15W52 plage 10028 2002.07.08 S16W27 plage classifcation at midnight 10029 2002.07.08 7 S14W14 0050 DAO was HAX, region had 3 spots then with an area of 0030 10030 2002.07.09 66 N19E24 0730 FKC beta-gamma-delta 10031 2002.07.11 2 N10E37 0010 HRX 10032 2002.07.13 3 S20W14 0010 AXX now spotless 10033 2002.07.13 2 N08E00 0020 AXX now spotless Total number of sunspots: 43 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (112.7 predicted, -1.9) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (111.3 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (106.6 predicted, -4.7) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (100.7 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (96.3 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (91.7 predicted, -4.6) 2002.07 138.2 (1) 51.3 (2) (86.9 predicted, -4.8) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]