Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 9, 2002 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 354 and 429 km/sec. A slow increase in wind speed was noted during the last hours of the day and early on July 9, perhaps due to a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 130.9 (the lowest measured solar flux at 20h UTC since August 2, 2001), the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour planetary K indices: 3213 3223, Boulder K indices: 2212 3224). Region 10019 decayed further and slowly lost penumbral area. Region 10021 decayed significantly and had only a few small spots left by the end of the day. Region 10022 decayed and was spotless by noon. Region 10023 decayed and was spotless early in the day. Region 10024 decayed as it lost penumbral area in both the leading and trailing spot sections. Region 10025 decayed slowly and quietly. New regions 10028 and 10029 emerged in the southeast quadrant, region 10029 appears to be decaying already. An interesting region is rotating into view at the northeast limb with a large spot visible early on July 9. This or another region further north at the northeast limb was the source of the the two M flares recorded on July 8. Further M class flares are likely. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C and 2 M class events was recorded on July 8. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on July 7-8 and could cause a minor geomagnetic disturbance on on July 10-11. An M1.6 flare at 09:10 and an M2.3 flare at 23:09 UTC had a source at or just behind the northeast limb. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on July 9-11 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10019 2002.06.29 9 S19W44 0280 DAI beta-gamma 10020 2002.07.02 N00W17 plage 10021 2002.07.03 9 S29W60 0080 DAO area too large 10022 2002.07.03 3 S19W36 0000 AXX now spotless 10023 2002.07.03 4 S22W13 0010 AXX actually spotless 10024 2002.07.03 12 S34W02 0090 DAO too many spots 10025 2002.07.04 4 S20E24 0030 CSO 10027 2002.07.07 S15E13 plage 10028 2002.07.08 1 S17E42 0020 HRX 10029 2002.07.08 3 S16E52 0020 BXO Total number of sunspots: 45 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (112.7 predicted, -1.9) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (111.3 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (106.6 predicted, -4.7) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (100.7 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (96.3 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (91.7 predicted, -4.6) 2002.07 141.2 (1) 32.6 (2) (86.9 predicted, -4.8) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]