Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 8, 2002 at 04:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 378 and 479 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 136.9, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour planetary K indices: 3332 3332, Boulder K indices: 3222 2432). Region 10016 decayed and may have been spotless when it rotated off the visible disk late in the day. Region 10019 decayed slowly. There is still a chance of minor M class flare. Region 10021 decayed in the leading spots section, some new development was observed in the trailing spots. Region 10022 was quiet and stable but could become spotless today or tomorrow. Region 10023 decayed and appears to be spotless early on July 8. Region 10024 was mostly quiet and unchanged. Region 10025 was quiet and stable. New region 10027 emerged briefly early in the day and was spotless by late afternoon. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C and 1 M class events was recorded on July 7. Two interesting events occurred during the day. First a long duration M1.0 event peaked at 11:43 UTC. This event was associated with a fast partial halo CME where the major part of the CME was observed off the central west limb. The source of the CME may have been a prominence eruption. A minor proton event began shortly after the LDE and peaked at 22 pfu during the evening. The second interesting event of the day was a large filament eruption in the northwest quadrant. A CME was observed, mainly off the northwest limb, after the long duration event which peaked at C1.8 at 16:22 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3-B4 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on July 7-8 and could cause a minor geomagnetic disturbance on on July 10-11. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 8-9 and quiet to active on July 10-11. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 10016 2002.06.25 1 S17W88 0010 HSX 10019 2002.06.29 10 S19W32 0330 EAI beta-gamma 10020 2002.07.02 N00W04 plage 10021 2002.07.03 10 S29W46 0080 DAO 10022 2002.07.03 4 S19W23 0020 BXO 10023 2002.07.03 4 S24E04 0020 BXO 10024 2002.07.03 7 S34E11 0150 DAO 10025 2002.07.04 1 S21E37 0060 HAX 10026 2002.07.05 N24W84 plage 10026 2002.07.05 4 S15E26 0020 BXO now spotless Total number of sunspots: 41 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (112.7 predicted, -1.9) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (111.3 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (106.6 predicted, -4.7) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (100.7 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (96.3 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (91.7 predicted, -4.6) 2002.07 142.7 (1) 28.5 (2) (86.9 predicted, -4.8) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]