Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update July 2, 2002 at 03:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 1, 2002)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update April 13, 2002)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on July 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 457 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 147.4, the planetary A index was 15 (3-hour K indices: 3424 3432, Boulder K indices: 4423 3422). Region 10011 was spotless all day, however, a new region emerged 8 degrees longitude further west. Instead of using a new region number, SEC/NOAA conveniently used an existing one. Region 10012 developed further as it began to rotate out of view at the northwest limb. Region 10016 decayed slowly and quietly. Region 10017 developed further and by noon had a magnetic delta structure. By late afternoon the positive and negative polarity areas had drifted slightly further apart and the delta structure disappeared. The region is growing at a moderate pace and could produce minor M class flares. Spotless region 10018 had rotated behind the northwest limb early in the day. Unfortunately SEC/NOAA made a major mistake in including this region in their solar region summary report. The reported SSN of 100 should be reduced to 87. In the region summary SEC/NOAA copied the data used for region 10012. Region 10019 decayed slowly. Most of the decay occurred in the southernmost penumbra which lost some of its areal coverage and split into two penumbrae. Although the region has simplified slightly, there is still a chance of an M class flare. Early on July 2 a couple of new, small regions have rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C class events was recorded on July 1. All of the events, with the exception of a C1.6 flare in region 10017 at 09:12 UTC, were optically uncorrelated. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on July 3 and could cause a geomagnetic disturbance on July 6. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 2-4. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 10011 2002.06.22 5 S10W67 0020 CRO area too small, actually a new region 10012 2002.06.23 3 N14W86 0100 DAO 10014 2002.06.23 S18W54 plage 10015 2002.06.24 S26W55 plage 10016 2002.06.25 2 S16W10 0050 CSO 10017 2002.06.27 18 S19W37 0130 DAI beta-gamma area too small major mistake from 10018 2002.06.29 3 N15W87 0100 DAO SEC/NOAA, data copied from region 10012! beta-gamma 10019 2002.06.29 9 S18E50 0600 EKI area too large classification now DKO Total number of sunspots: 37 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 2001.06 173.0 134.0 109.8 (+1.2) 2001.07 131.3 81.8 111.7 (+1.9) 2001.08 162.9 106.4 113.6 (+1.8) 2001.09 233.2 150.7 114.1 (+0.5) 2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1) 2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5) 2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9) 2002.01 226.6 114.1 (112.7 predicted, -1.9) 2002.02 205.0 107.4 (111.3 predicted, -1.4) 2002.03 179.5 98.4 (106.6 predicted, -4.7) 2002.04 189.8 120.4 (100.7 predicted, -5.9) 2002.05 178.4 120.8 (96.3 predicted, -4.4) 2002.06 148.7 88.5 (91.7 predicted, -4.6) 2002.07 147.4 (1) 2.8 (2) (86.9 predicted, -4.8) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]